Emerging Markets Insights: War in Iran and falling tariffs

Thank you for the invitation to speak today. I look forward to our discussion. Events like this are essential to how the Fed operates and reflect the importance of the Fed’s regional structure. The district I represent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) covers a seven-state region, and discussions with local businesses and communities underpin my participation in the Committee. An important part of my job is to give voice to the concerns and insights of individuals in the 10th District when it comes to the economy and monetary policy. One of the benefits of the Fed’s structure, with 12 independent regional banks spread across the country, is that it allows a level of interaction and participation that would not be possible if operations were centralized in Washington. We are your Fed. You should feel a connection with this institution, and I hope our discussion today will make that connection more immediate and real. Before turning to the outlook for the economy and policy, let’s take a minute to look back. Way back. This year marks America’s 250th birthday. Though that might seem like some time ago, it is important to remember how new and revolutionary the United States was (and still is) as a system of governance and political organization. This is an experiment that has evolved and continues to evolve. But one outcome of that expe FED'S SCHMID SAYS NO ROOM TO BE COMPLACENT ON INFLATION SCHMID SAYS INFLATION IS HOT, DEMAND IS OUTPACING SUPPLY SCHMID SAYS DOES NOT MENTION IRAN CONFLICT IN PREPARED REMARKS SCHMID SAYS LABOR MARKET IS IN BALANCE

I’m so pleased to be with you today. My parents were California state employees and lifelong credit union members. They taught me the value of saving at an early age, and I too am proud to be a lifetime credit union member. In fact, my first car loan was from a credit union. At the time, my mother admonished me that the point was to save for the future, not to borrow to buy a sports car. Alas, I was in my early 20s and had my own priorities. Now, as president of the New York Fed, I oversee an organization that has several important responsibilities—including implementing monetary policy. Today, I’m going to talk about the U.S. economy and how the Federal Reserve is working to achieve its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability—which, for us, are two sides of the same coin. Like most coins, this one can be broken down into smaller denominations, and I’ll discuss some of those, too. Before I go further, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Importance of Credit Unions Federal Reserve's Williams: Eventual rate cuts intended to keep policy from becoming too restrictive. NYFED'S WILLIAMS/CU CONF: EXPECT INFLATION TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 2.5% THIS YEAR, HITTING 2% TARGET NEXT YR #Williams #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Williams expects the unemployment rate to decline this year and next. Fed's Williams: Central bank rate policy stance currently well positioned.

FED'S WILLIAMS: OIL PRICES DO INFLUENCE INFLATION, AND THAT IMPACT WOULD CHANGE NEAR-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK, WILL HAVE TO ASSESS PERSISTENCE Just in | Fed's Williams: Comparing the Iran conflict to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is challenging due to the uncertain duration of the oil shock. *FED'S WILLIAMS: TOO SOON TO GAUGE IRAN WAR IMPACT, US RESILIENT TO OIL SHOCKS FED'S WILLIAMS: THE FED WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER SPILLOVERS OF IRAN ACROSS FOREIGN MARKETS AND TRADING PARTNERS, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS. ...