Three things we are thinking about today: 1. ͏͏͏͏War in Iran: Operation Epic Fury and President Trump’s goal of regime change in Iran raises the risk of a sustained military campaign as opposed to a time limited, contained exchange. For markets, the escalation and disruption of energy and logistics infrastructure is resulting in a higher equity risk premium. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz is a concern and increases the risks to inflation, if closure is sustained. With selected emerging markets (EM) at all-time highs, a pull-back is likely inevitable, but a correction beyond 10% is dependent on how events ... (full story)