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Emerging Markets Insights: War in Iran and falling tariffs
Three things we are thinking about today: 1. ͏͏͏͏War in Iran: Operation Epic Fury and President Trump’s goal of regime change in Iran raises the risk of a sustained military campaign as opposed to a time limited, contained exchange. For markets, the escalation and disruption of energy and logistics infrastructure is resulting in a higher equity risk premium. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz is a concern and increases the risks to inflation, if closure is sustained. With selected emerging markets (EM) at all-time highs, a pull-back is likely inevitable, but a correction beyond 10% is dependent on how events ... (full story)
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President Donald Trump said the US will provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to head off a potential energy crisis caused by the war with Iran. Trump said Tuesday that the US International Development Finance Corporation would offer insurance “at a very ...
ECB’s Stournaras: If Iran War Continues, There Will Be Upward Pressure On Euro Zone Inflation - We Should Show Flexibility - Impact On Inflation And Output Depends On The Duration And The Depth Of The Iran Conflict - As We Have No Visibility We Should Not Rush To Change Rates
The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran add yet more question marks around a U.S. economy already buffeted by on-and-off tariffs, weak hiring, and lingering inflationary pressures. The war has already raised oil prices and could lift prices at the pump as early as this week, but the ultimate impact on the economy and inflation will depend on the length and ...
