Commodities weekly: Middle East tensions lift crude and precious metals

Good morning. Thank you to the National Association for Business Economics for inviting me to speak with you today, and thank you to Jared for serving as our moderator. I am ...

Monetary policy since August 2024 can be characterised by the gradual and careful removal of policy restrictiveness. Since the August 2024 MPC meeting, the Committee has been engaged in a cycle of cuts to Bank Rate from its post-pandemic peak and has continued to lower the stock of gilts held in the APF. 2. The reduction in policy restrictiveness was allowed by a rapid fall in headline CPI inflation from its 11% peak in October-2022, to close to 2% target levels by the autumn of 2024. While much of that decline in inflation reflected the unwinding of the external shocks to energy, food and tradable goods prices that drove the initial inflation surge, the Committee judged that restrictive monetary policy had also played an important role in containing second‑round effects and stabilising longer‑term inflation expectations. Just in | Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledges that the central bank may have previously focused too heavily on achieving inflation targets, potentially overlooking future economic risks. BOE'S PILL SAYS DISINFLATION PROCESS INTACT, STILL INCOMPLETE BOE'S PILL SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION 2.5% TO 3%, MORE WORK TO DO BoE's Pill: I see risks to inflation on the upside, caution is needed.

This report covers the period from February 2025 to February 2026. I began this period believing that the overall trend of disinflation towards our target continued and so some further removal of monetary policy restrictiveness was likely to be appropriate. My subsequent voting record reflects my view that there have been two-sided risks to our central projection, but that the risk of inflation persistence has outweighed that of weaker demand over the past year. My voting record also reflects the high importance I have placed on ensuring inflation returns sustainably to target given we are now in the fifth year of inflation remaining significantly above 2%. In this rate cutting cycle, my monetary policy strategy has been one of risk management, in which I have weighed the costs of maintaining too much versus too little restrictiveness. I believe the cost of the latter is greater. Generally, the data over this period has suggested the disinflation process continued. The data has also shown the UK real economy to be more resilient than forecast (in year-on-year terms, particularly in the first half of 2025), though consumption had remained subdued and the labour market had loosened slightly more than we’d expected. I voted to cut Bank Rate last May, but then - given subsequent reductions in Bank Rate - voted to hold Bank Rate to ensure monetary policy remai BOE'S GREENE: DISINFLATION PROCESS MAY BE STALLING. BoE's Greene suggests slowing the pace of interest rate cuts is appropriate

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 2.2 points in February to 91.2 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. The Present Situation Index—based ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index ...

Wholesale inventories in the United States rose 0.2% in December 2025 compared to November's revised figures, coming in at $918 billion, the US Census Bureau unveiled in a report ...