Waller: 2nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Thank you, Constance, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. Let me commend NABE for focusing this year's conference on economic disruptions including artificial intelligence, a subject I have spoken on often lately, and which I will address again tomorrow at a Boston Fed conference. But today, I will turn to another topic that I know is of interest, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goals of maximum employment and stable prices. At our January meeting, the FOMC voted to hold our policy rate steady, following three 25-basis-point cuts since September. The Committee had cut rates because job gains had slowed and downside risks to employment had increased, amid somewhat elevated inflation. In my view, appropriate policy should look through tariff effects on inflation. Underlying inflation was running close to 2 percent while the labor market remained at risk, and these circumstances led me to favor another cut in January, and to dissent against the Committee's decision. I felt that the risk of a substantial downturn in the labor market combined with a limited risk of higher inflation warranted another cut, bringing the policy rate closer to a neutral setting. Even in the absence of some data due to last year's government shutdown, a factor cited by some FOMC colleagues voting to pause, the balance of risks for me were weighted toward further policy easing. FED'S WALLER: JANUARY JOBS DATA AN UPSIDE SURPRISE, IF CONTINUES IN FEBRUARY MAY BE APPROPRIATE TO KEEP RATES STEADY FED'S WALLER: NO DISMISSING WEAK JOB CREATION OF 2025, BUT ALSO TRUE THAT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED ...

The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive ruling. For one thing, I can use Licenses to do absolutely “terrible” things to foreign countries, especially those countries that have been RIPPING US OFF for many decades, but incomprehensibly, according to the ruling, can’t charge them a License fee - BUT ALL LICENSES CHARGE FEES, why can’t the United States do so? You do a license to get a fee! The opinion doesn’t explain that, but I know the answer! The court has also approved all other Tariffs, of which there are many, and they can all be used in a much more powerful and obnoxious way, with legal certainty, than the Tariffs as initially used. Our incompetent supreme court did a great job for the wrong people, and for that they should be ashamed of themselves (but not the Great Three!). The next thing you know they will rule in favor of China and others, who are making an absolute fortune on Birthright Citizenship, by saying the 14th Amendment was NOT written to take care of the “babies of slaves,” which it was as proven by the EXACT TIMING of its construction, filing, and ratification, which perfectly coincided with the END OF THE CIVIL WAR. How much better can you do than that? But this supreme court will find a way to come to the wrong conclusion, one that again will make China, and various other Nations, happy and rich. Let our supreme court keep making decisions that are so bad and deleterious to the future of our Nation - I have a job to do. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP

FED'S WALLER: THERE ARE REASONS INCLUDING AI TO THINK THE HIRING MAY REMAIN WEAK Fed's Waller: Firms are starting to shed labor after over-hiring Fed's Waller: Companies are still trying to determine how AI may reduce labor demand, or similarly allow workers to be repurposed Fed's Waller: Right Now All Of The Data For The Past Year Suggests Labor Demand Is Falling More Than Labor Supply - Would Be Inefficient To Move To A Scarce Reserves Regime - If Productivity Is Rising The Neutral Rate Is Likely Rising As Well

WALLER: ZERO JOB GROWTH DOES NOT SEEM LIKE A STABLE EMPLOYMENT ENVIRONMENT FED GOV WALLER Q&A/NABE: LOT OF CAPITAL GOING INTO DATA CENTERS COMING FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE; INVESTMENT OUTSIDE OF CONSTRUCTION 'GOING DOWN,' NOT UP #Waller #FederalReserve #economy FED'S WALLER: NEVER SEEN THE ECONOMY GROWING LIKE THIS WITHOUT JOBS ...