ECB: The next move is up | Metals Mine

  • ECB: The next move is up

    From swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

    The ECB met on 5 February. My view is simple: the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. Markets still see some probability of a cut this year. I do not. Let me explain why. Earlier this year I estimated a reaction function for the ECB. It suggested that r* in the euro area is about –0.3% when core inflation is used to compute the real interest rate. That number is not unreasonable. At r*, inflation should be stable. Headline HICP inflation in the second half of last year fluctuated between 2.1% and 2.4%. Core inflation moved between 2.3% and 2.4%. So inflation has stabilised. That is ... (full story)

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ZforexCM
Feb 16, 2026 1:28am
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The euro held near $1.19, remaining close to late January highs as confidence grows that the ECB is in no rush to ease policy. Inflation has stabilized near the 2% target, leaving rates close to neutral and reducing the need for immediate action.

While markets still price some chance of a rate cut later this year, the ECB’s latest messaging points to a more balanced outlook. The economy is holding up, unemployment is at record lows, and public spending is rising. At the same time, services inflation remains elevated, and wage growth is firming, suggesting domestic price pressures may persist.

A softer dollar, supported by easing U.S. inflation, has also helped keep EUR/USD supported.

EURUSD Support & Resistance Levels
R1: 1.1920 | S1: 1.1840
R2: 1.1970 | S2: 1.1780
R3: 1.2000 | S3: 1.1730
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-edges-toward-monthly-highs-5452.png Size: 58 KB
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Czyker26
Feb 15, 2026 11:04pm
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The Australian Dollar is looking really really good right now, .73 on the way !!!!!

Hell with the terrible ECB and their Euro.......
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