Trying to gauge geopolitical risk

FED’S HAMMACK: FED IN GOOD POSITION WITH POLICY ‘TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT’ - CURRENT FED TARGET RATE ‘IN VICINITY’ OF NEUTRAL - FED RATE POLICY COULD BE ON HOLD 'FOR QUITE SOME TIME’ Recipe for a Thriving US Economy: Strong Banks, Patient Policy, and an Independent yet Accountable Central Bank My thanks to the Ohio Bankers League for the invitation to speak with you today. Being in this room is a big deal to me. You might think of yourselves as unassuming bankers, but let me tell you why I think you’re super stars. Not long ago, on a beautiful fall day, I was walking along Main Street with a local banker in the town of Wooster, Ohio. Everyone knew him, lit up when they saw him, and shared stories about how he’d helped them with their business, their mortgage, or their personal finances. It was like being in the presence of a celebrity: LeBron James or Donovan Mitchell greeting fans and shaking hands. While the usual Fed disclaimer applies1, I know how important you are to the communities you serve.2 In fact, I’ve understood the value of American banks for a long time. Before becoming a Federal Reserve policymaker, I worked in financial markets as a market maker and, for an eventful period, as a corporate treasurer. Like probably all of you, I vividly remember the first few months of the pandemic in 2020. As consumer spending fell rapidly across the globe, markets buckled, and firms drew down their lines of credit, creating a severe cash shortfall. I worked firsthand with bankers under these challenging circumstances to make credit and resource allocation decisions. Fortunately, banks were in a good position to serve as a bridge between the financial system and the real economy. Community banks in particular punched above their weight. They made nearly half of the Paycheck Protection Program loans that were extended during the first six months of the pandemic.3 This support along with fiscal actions and the Fed’s emergency measures allowed the economy to get back on its feet relatively quickly. Five years on, that experience continues to reinforce that banks are a crucial source of strength for the economy. I’ll take that a step further: In good times and bad, the large and diverse US banking system is our economy’s “secret sauce,” and like any great recipe, our banking sector blends a variety of ingredients to create a flavor profile with balance and harmony, one which is uniquely American. Strong banks are not only important for the economy, they’re also essential for effective implementation of monetary policy. Banks must be safe and sound in order to propagate monetary policy decisions throughout the economy. Tailoring regulation and supervision is one way we can ensure the banking system endures as a lasting source of economic strength. At the same time, we should be mindful that loosening the rules too much could result in less resilient banks that don’t serve the country well in times of stress. Just as we balance safety with economic growth in t

Good afternoon, everyone, and happy new year to all. I’m excited to welcome you to the Eleventh Federal Reserve district, and I appreciate the opportunity to talk with you at this year’s Asset Management Derivatives Forum about the U.S. economy and monetary policy. Given your interests and the conference agenda, I’ll also take the opportunity to touch on some recent developments in the implementation of monetary policy. I look forward to a robust discussion. Before I begin, I should note these are my views and not necessarily those of my Federal Reserve colleagues. Congress gave the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy making arm of the Federal Reserve, a dual mandate: to set monetary policy to deliver both price stability and maximum employment. The FOMC’s long-run strategy calls for a balanced approach to achieving these two objectives during periods when they are moving in opposite directions from the FOMC’s longer-run goals. FED’S LOGAN: POLICY NEAR NEUTRAL, INFLATION RISKS STILL SKEWED TO THE UPSIDE SAYS THE REAL FEDERAL FUNDS RATE NOW SITS SQUARELY WITHIN THE RANGE OF NEUTRAL RATE ESTIMATES NOTES THE CURRENT POLICY STANCE MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO NEUTRAL, PROVIDING LITTLE RESTRAIN SAYS INFLATION HAS…