Weekly Forex Forecast – WTI Crude Oil, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, DAX, Silver, Gold, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Gold Retreats on Policy Repricing
A recalibration around Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Chair, is reshaping market expectations. While Warsh is not strictly opposed to rate cuts, it has become clear that his policy stance is less dovish than markets had previously assumed. This shift has lent support to the dollar while weighing on non-yielding assets, particularly gold.

Pressure on precious metals has also been reinforced by CME Group’s decision to raise margin requirements for precious metals futures. The move has carried forward the weakness that set in after Black Friday into the latest session. Higher margin levels require additional capital to maintain positions, a dynamic that often accelerates position unwinding. Against this backdrop, spot gold has pulled back toward $4,600 per ounce.

Where selling pressure builds:
From a technical perspective, sustained trading below $4,600 would point to a more pronounced increase in downside momentum.

Possible downside scenarios:
• Sustained trade below $4,600: a move toward the $4,275 area
• Further weakness below that level: the $3,885 horizontal support may come into play
The current structure proves downside risks remain prominent, while any rebounds are likely to stay limited and corrective rather than showing a broader shift in trend.

Where oil goes, consumer prices follow. Looks pretty bearish on a Weekly chart, while subjective, 50% level is resistance.


(That last picture I posted looked like a cartoon!)

Thanks you