Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China ticked down by 0.1% in December 2025 to 145.3 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.2% in November. As a result, the LEI ...

US tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade arrangements are disrupting the Canadian economy. Growth in Canada is expected to remain modest, while inflation stays close to 2%. The Canadian economic outlook is little changed since the October Report. Canada continues to adjust to a new trade landscape. Affected businesses are reconfiguring their trade and seeking new suppliers and markets. As this adjustment proceeds, capital will start being reallocated and some workers will shift into new roles. This adjustment will take time, and growth will be restrained through the transition. Uncertainty remains high. The world is becoming more fragmented, and geopolitical risks are elevated. For Canada, the future of trade in North America is an important uncertainty (see In Focus: The review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement). Summary of economic conditions The Canadian economy continues to evolve much as expected, although quarterly growth patterns have been quite volatile. Much of this volatility has been driven by large swings in trade and inventories. After expanding rapidly in the third quarter of 2025, growth likely stalled in the fourth quarter. Growth over the second half of 2025 is estimated to have averaged about 1¼%. Gross domestic product is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. The pace of expansion is modest due Just in | Bank of Canada projects potential output growth at 1.0% for both 2026 and 2027, with the latter revised down from 1.3%. Breaking | Bank of Canada projects 2025 growth at 1.7%, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.2% in October. Just in | Bank of Canada revises 2026 inflation forecast to 2.0%, slightly down from October's 2.1%, while maintaining a 2.1% outlook for 2027.

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision. Today, Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.25%. Our forecast for economic growth and inflation in Canada has not changed significantly since our October projection. As the Canadian economy continues to adjust to US trade restrictions, we expect GDP to grow modestly and inflation to stay close to the 2% target. However, uncertainty around our forecast is heightened, and the range of possible outcomes is wider than usual. US trade policy remains unpredictable, and geopolitical risks are elevated. Our monetary policy decisions are focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural change. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. With heightened uncertainty, we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Let me expand on what we’ve seen in the economy since we published our October Monetary Policy Report, and what we see ahead. BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR TIFF MACKLEM SAYS ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT HARD TO PREDICT TIMING OR DIRECTION OF NEXT RATE CHANGE MACKLEM: TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW WELL CANADIAN ECONOMY WILL ADJUST TO TARIFFS AND ONGOING UNCERTAINTY MACKLEM SAYS UNCERTAINTY AROUND THIS OUTLOOK IS UNUSUALLY HIGH; RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IS WIDER THAN USUAL

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