US employment remains weak, but a recovery is in the cards

Thank you, President Hasner, for the kind introduction. It is an honor to speak at Florida Atlantic University, and I am glad to have the chance to talk with those here from the American Institute for Economic Research and the Shadow Open Market Committee. I especially appreciate the opportunity to discuss my economic outlook at the start of the new year. It is a task made considerably easier with the gradual return of federal government data, which was disrupted by last year's lapse in funding. The lack of data reinforced two long-held beliefs for me. One, how grateful I am for the dedicated service of the statistical agencies to keep policymakers, businesses, and the public informed about the state of the economy. And, two, how important it is to have access to an array of data beyond what those agencies provide. That includes data produced by the Federal Reserve System, state governments, and a wide variety of private-sector sources. All of those data sources inform my view of the economy and help me make monetary policy decisions. Today, I will start by sharing my outlook for the economy at the start of 2026. Next, I will discuss the implications of that outlook for the path of monetary policy. And, finally, I will discuss some recent developments in monetary policy implementation, which I know is of interest to many of you in this room. As a reminder, these views are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues. Fed's Jefferson: Current policy stance leaves us well-positioned to determine how much and when to adjust the policy rate. FED'S JEFFERSON: SOME UPSIDE RISKS REMAIN, BUT EXPECT INFLATION TO RETURN TO THE PATH TOWARD 2%. ... Fed's Jefferson cautiously optimistic for 2026 outlook, citing risks to employment and price stability goals

*BESSENT: EXPECT FED CHAIR DECISION BEFORE DAVOS OR UPON RETURN *BESSENT: RICK RIEDER WAS IN WITH TRUMP YESTERDAY *BESSENT ON IF HASSET NOT GOING TO FED: IT'S TRUMP'S PREROGATIVE * BESSENT: DOWN TO 4 CANDIDATES FOR FED CHAIR * BESSENT: FOR GOVERNOR BOWMAN, BEST USE IS HER EXISTING JOB * BESSENT: HASSETT HAS ONE OF MOST POWERFUL FINANCE JOBS IN GOVT. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Fed's Miran can continue at Fed past January 31st. US Treasury Secretary Bessent on if Warsh is odds-on favorite: We'll see. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent remarks: - Tariff inflation was the dog that didn't bark. - Unlikely the Supreme Court will oppose IEEPA tariffs. - Anticipates $100B to $150B in tax refunds for working Americans. - Concludes remarks on Fox Business.