U.S. Economic Outlook: January 2026

In April last year, the global growth outlook looked grim -the US led trade war was expected to hit major economies hard. Since that time, growth expectations have been steadily upgraded (chart 1). Much of the focus has been on the stronger US economy, fuelled by the AI investment boom. Less has been said about the resilience of the Chinese economy. ...

Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with three Districts reporting no change and one reporting a modest decline. This marks an improvement over the last three report cycles where a majority of Districts reported little change. Most banks reported slight to modest growth in consumer spending this cycle, largely attributed to the holiday shopping season. Several Districts also noted that spending was stronger among higher-income consumers with increased spending on luxury goods, travel, tourism, and experiential activities. Meanwhile, low to moderate income consumers were seen to be increasingly price sensitive and hesitant to spend on nonessential goods and services. Auto sales were little changed to down across most Districts. Manufacturing activity varied with five Districts reporting growth and six reporting contraction. Nonfinancial services demand was generally seen as steady to increasing somewhat. Banking conditions were generally reported as stable or improving, with some increased demand coming from credit cards, home equity loans, and commercial lending. Residential real estate sales, construction, and lending activity softened in the majority of Districts that report on the sector. Agriculture conditions were largely unchanged with only Atlanta reporting a modest decline due to weaker demand for exported commodities. Energy demand and production was flat to down slightly. Outlooks for future activity were mildly optimistic with most expecting slight to modest growth in coming months. FED BEIGE BOOK SAYS OUTLOOKS FOR FUTURE ACTIVITY ARE MILDLY OPTIMISTIC WITH MOST DISTRICTS EXPECTING SLIGHT TO MODEST GROWTH IN THE COMING MONTHS, WHILE PRICES ROSE AT A MODERATE PACE ACROSS MOST DISTRICTS WITH ONLY TWO REPORTING SLIGHT PRICE GROWTH

Gold remains one of the most misunderstood assets in global financial markets. It is often analysed as a commodity driven by supply and demand, yet its true relevance lies elsewhere. Gold is first and foremost a monetary asset, not an industrial one. In 2026, gold continues to matter because it sits at the intersection of money, trust, and systemic risk. It ...