2026 US economic outlook

Good evening, everyone, and happy new year to all. I always appreciate the opportunity to speak here at the Council on Foreign Relations.1 I’m looking forward to a robust discussion this evening. You may have read that the words of the year for 2025 were phrases like “rage-bait,” “AI slop,” and, of course, “6-7.” I’d add a word of my own. In December, I gave a speech titled “Resilience.”2 I said then that despite all the uncertainty posed by trade policy and geopolitical events, the U.S. and global economies showed considerable resilience, continued to grow, and were poised to gain steam in 2026. I’d like to pick up where I left off and talk about what I expect to see this year for the U.S. economy and for monetary policy. Before I continue, allow me to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the FOMC or others in the Federal Reserve System. FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS MONETARY POLICY IS WELL POSITIONED AND NOW CLOSER TO A NEUTRAL STANCE FED’S WILLIAMS EXPECTS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO STABILIZE THIS YEAR; SEES INFLATION PEAKING AT 2.75%–3% IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR FED’S WILLIAMS SEES U.S. GROWTH OF 2.5%–2.75% IN 2026; SAYS TARIFF-DRIVEN INFLATION MOSTLY BORNE BY AMERICANS; EXPECTS ACTIVE USE OF FED REPO OPERATIONS FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS INFLATION MUST FALL WITHOUT HURTING JOBS; POLICY DECISIONS TO BE DATA-DRIVEN ...