Fed seen on longer rate-cut pause after December jobs data | Metals Mine

  • Fed seen on longer rate-cut pause after December jobs data

    From msn.com

    A drop in the unemployment rate may ease concerns at the U.S. central bank about labor market weakness, with traders betting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has delivered his last interest rate cut before his term ends in May and leaving any further policy easing in the hands of whomever President Donald Trump taps as Powell's successor. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% last month from a revised 4.5% in November, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday, even as employers added 50,000 jobs in the month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 60,000. Powell helped propel the Fed into reducing ... (full story)

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rosy440
Jan 11, 2026 7:07am
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Let's take a closer look at the labor market results.

The biggest cuts in retail trade. That is, this means that consumer spending is actively declining, that is, the consumer is very weak. And let me remind you that the consumer provides almost 70% of US GDP.

In second place from the bottom is the construction sector. There is nothing surprising here, since the real estate sector is actively shrinking. And, in my opinion, if it were not for state infrastructure projects, the situation here would be much worse.
The main growth is provided by Leisure & hospitality and Education & health services. These are sectors with low added value or those financed by the state/insurance.
And in third place are government jobs. That is, these are jobs that do not generate added value.

If you look at the sectors, the manufacturing sector is completely in the red (this is the basis of a healthy economy). And the service sector is still in the red, but primarily due to state funding.
The fact that people cannot find a job for more than half a year indicates a "freezing" of the labor market. This is one of the most objective indicators of reality in the labor market.
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