Gold and silver face a test of strength as annual index rebalancing begins

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Job finding expectations declined to a series low—the second series low for the measure in six months—while job loss expectations also worsened. Spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Delinquency expectations deteriorated to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic, but respondents were more optimistic about their future household financial situations. The survey was fielded from December 1 through December 31, 2025. The main findings from the December 2025 Survey are: NY Fed 1 Yr Inflation Expectations Actual 3.42% (Forecast -, Previous 3.2%) NY Fed: 3-year and 5-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3%.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Interest rates are still substantially above neutral, and we should not be in restrictive mode, models suggest 2.5% to 3.25% for the Fed rate. BESSENT: WE ARE LOOKING AT A SMALLER FISCAL DEFICIT THIS YEAR, BETWEEN $300 BILLION AND $500 BILLION BESSENT: OUR ABILITY TO CONTINUE COLLECTINJG TARIFFS AT THE SAME LEVELS IS NOT IN DOUBT BESSENT: I THINK TRUMP WILL DECIDE ON FED CHAIR IN JANUARY US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Rick Rieder has not been interviewed yet for the Fed chair job.