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Revisiting the ECB's Reaction Function
From swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
I decided to start the year by revisiting my work on estimating reaction functions for the ECB (see the appendix to ECB Set to Cut Rates Amid Trade Turmoil and Will the ECB cut interest rates on October 17?). This may seem an arcane subject to some readers, but I have recently received comments from economists within the Eurosystem who had read the analysis carefully. That prompted me to update the model. Commentators in the private sector often underestimate just how formal policy analysis inside central banks tends to be. Reaction functions are, of course, no substitute for careful analysis of economic conditions. ... (full story)