The decision to stay on hold was widely expected (unanimously so, as I was looking for) so that market attention was on the fresh staff forecasts and the related communication. In the end, the press conference yielded three interesting tidbits. But before moving on, time to haul my skeleton out of the closet: I had expected a last cut in March – I now see them on hold for the whole of 2026. More detail in a future post. In my preview of this ECB meeting, I described President Lagarde’s challenge in the ECB press conference as being not to sound too hawkish despite hawkish-leaning forecasts. In the end, the forecasts ... (full story)