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ECB Review: The New Neutral
From thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com
The decision to stay on hold was widely expected (unanimously so, as I was looking for) so that market attention was on the fresh staff forecasts and the related communication. In the end, the press conference yielded three interesting tidbits. But before moving on, time to haul my skeleton out of the closet: I had expected a last cut in March – I now see them on hold for the whole of 2026. More detail in a future post. In my preview of this ECB meeting, I described President Lagarde’s challenge in the ECB press conference as being not to sound too hawkish despite hawkish-leaning forecasts. In the end, the ... (full story)
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From cnbc.com|Dec 18, 2025|1 commentJapan’s central bank on Friday raised its policy rate to a three-decade high, marching ahead with its policy normalization, as inflation has stayed above its target levels for ...
From boj.or.jp|Dec 18, 2025|29 commentsAt the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period: The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75 percent. In accordance with the change in the guideline for money market operations, the Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to change the interest rates applied to its measures. Interest rate applied to the complementary deposit facility The interest rate applied to the complementary deposit facility (the interest rate applied to current account balances held by financial institutions at the Bank, excluding required reserve balances) will be 0.75 percent.
Decision at the December 2025 MPM It is highly likely that the mechanism in which both wages and prices rise moderately will be maintained. • The likelihood of realizing the baseline scenario that underlying CPI inflation will be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2 percent in the second half of the projection period of the October 2025 Outlook Report has been rising. • While uncertainties remain, they have declined. • It is highly likely that firms will continue to raise wages steadily next year, following the solid wage increases this year. • The risk of firms' active wage-setting behavior being interrupted is low. BOJ: JAPAN'S REAL RATE IS AT SIGNIFICANTLY LOW LEVEL BOJ: TO RAISE RATES IN LINE WITH ECONOMIC, PRICE IMPROVEMENT BOJ: ACCOMMODATIVE CONDITIONS TO KEEP SUPPORTING ECONOMY
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From @FirstSquawk|Dec 19, 2025|10 commentsBOJ’s Ueda Notes Japan’s Economy Showing Moderate Recovery, Though Weakness Persists BoJ Governor Ueda: Firms To Continue Steady Wage Rises Next Year • Low Risk Of Active Wage-Setting Behaviour Being Interrupted • Uncertainties Around US Economy And Trade Policy Remain But Have Declined BoJ’s Ueda: Likelihood Is Rising For Outlook To Be Realised BoJ’s Ueda: Will Continue To Raise Policy Rate If Economy, Prices Move In Line With Forecast
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- Dec 18, 2025 10:27pm Posted byFundamental Analysis1,317
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