Bank of Japan rate hike odds rise with strong export performance | Metals Mine

  • Bank of Japan rate hike odds rise with strong export performance

    From think.ing.com

    Japan’s exports rose 6.1% year on year in November (vs 3.6% in October, 5.0% market consensus). We believe that finalising the US trade deal and robust global semiconductor demand mainly drove the sharp increase in Japanese exports. By destination, exports to Asia increased by 4.5%, with notable growth in Taiwan (16.8%), Malaysia (14.3%), and Vietnam (14%), while exports to China fell by 2.4%. Exports to the US and EU also increased sharply by 8.8% and 19.6%, respectively. By export item, machinery exports increased by 5.1% and electrical machinery by 7.4%. Semiconductor exports rose 13%, mirroring growth seen in ... (full story)

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ZforexCM
Dec 17, 2025 12:52am
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USD/JPY moved back above 155 as dollar strength outweighed supportive domestic data, even as Japan’s export performance and rising machinery orders reinforced expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike this Friday. November exports exceeded forecasts, driven by strong demand from the US and EU, as well as strong semiconductor shipments, which helped the trade balance return to a surplus and supported the view that growth is recovering in the fourth quarter.

While a 25 bp hike is largely priced in, markets expect Governor Ueda to strike a cautious tone, keeping real rates negative and guidance neutral. This limits immediate yen upside, especially with US rate cut expectations still shaping dollar dynamics.

Technically, resistance stands near 155.30, while support is firm at 154.30.
R1: 155.30 | S1: 154.30
R2: 156.00 | S2: 153.60
R3: 156.70 | S3: 152.80
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