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US ADP employment change weekly actual: -13.5k vs -2.50k previous
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A silver twist on the gig economy
For the four weeks ending Nov. 8, 2025, private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs a week. Consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season, which might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation. These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data is added. The federal government’s delayed September employment report, released last week, showed that the economy added 119,000 jobs that month, better than economists had predicted. But for self-employed workers, the news wasn’t as good. The gig economy lost 114,000 jobs that month. In fact, the ranks of self-employed ... (full story)
- The latest ADP NER Pulse data points to a concerning shift in the U.S. labor market, with private payrolls dropping by 13,500 jobs per week for the four-week period ending November 8, 2025. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior period, where only 2,500 jobs were lost weekly. The data hints at broader economic cooling, as job losses now reflect growing labor market vulnerabilities. The modest +42,000 gain in October seems increasingly distant, raising questions about the sustainability of job growth.
Looking ahead, this surge in job losses could impact future Federal Reserve decisions. The market is already speculating that the Fed may shift toward rate cuts to address a cooling labor market and broader economic pressures. With the official BLS nonfarm payrolls report due on December 6, 2025, the likelihood of a dovish pivot from the Fed could rise if the data confirms a continued deterioration in employment. A potential rate cut could bring relief to consumers and businesses, stimulating demand in critical sectors like housing and retail.
Despite the growing job losses, the longer-term outlook offers some grounds for optimism. A slowdown in specific sectors, such as real estate and finance, may be part of a necessary recalibration rather than a full-scale economic downturn. Structural shifts, like advancements in renewable energy and AI-driven automation, could act as buffers, offering new growth avenues. The current slowdown could be viewed as part of a transition phase, helping the economy better position itself for future stability and innovation.
The next steps will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of U.S. employment and broader economic health. While the immediate future may bring more volatility, it's essential to consider how policymakers can balance short-term economic interventions with long-term strategic reforms. The coming months will likely reveal whether this downturn is temporary or the beginning of more substantial economic shifts. A responsive Federal Reserve, coupled with a resilient labor market, could ultimately guide the economy through this uncertain period.
Naeem Aslam @NaeemAslam23 *ADP: US PRIVATE PAYROLLS FELL AVG 13,500/WK IN 4 WKS TO NOV. 8
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Private payroll losses accelerated in the past four weeks, ADP reports
The U.S. labor market is showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Tuesday. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update it has been providing. That’s an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago. With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative data like ADP’s has been filling in the blanks on the economic picture. Government agencies such as the Bureaus of Labor Statistics and Economic ... (full story)
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