Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in October, down from a 2.4% increase in September. The all-items CPI decelerated largely due to gasoline ...

Thank you, President Schmid, for the kind introduction and for the invitation to speak here today.1 It is an honor to be in Kansas City and in the beautiful 10th District. I welcome the opportunity to attend events like this one because I believe it is essential for Federal Reserve policymakers to share their views with the public and, just as important, to hear directly from business leaders, workers, and families about how they are experiencing the economy. In many ways, the Kansas City region is a perfect place to make those connections. Sitting at the confluence of the Kansas and Missouri rivers, this area has been a place where people met and shared ideas long before the United States existed. And that tradition of making connections has continued to present day. The Pony Express was founded just north of here in St. Joseph, this is the greeting card capital, and, next year, this area will bring people together from around the globe for soccer's World Cup. I am happy to have the opportunity to continue the tradition of making connections in Kansas City with all of you. Today I would like to share my economic outlook. I will discuss how I see recent economic activity and talk about developments pertaining to both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. I will then offer my current view of monetary policy including the Fed's balance sheet before turning to our discussion. Economic Outlook In shaping my economic outlook, I consider a wide variety of government, administrative, and private-sector data, including data collected by the Kansas City Fed and fellow Reserve Banks across the country. Casting a wide net for i Fed's Jefferson: It's unclear how much official data will come before the meeting Fed's Jefferson: Current Fed policy rate still somewhat restrictive. Fed's Jefferson: The balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with increased potential downside to employment Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson did little to build the case for either a December rate cut or an extended pause: “The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.” Recent cuts were appropriate because the balance of risks…