The US government shutdown is reaching a tipping point that could send the economy into a downward spiral | Metals Mine

  • The US government shutdown is reaching a tipping point that could send the economy into a downward spiral

    From morningstar.com

    When the shutdown began on Oct.1, economists were relatively unconcerned about the economic impact. Based on prior experience, they estimated that the shutdown would subtract about 0.1%-0.2 percentage points from annualized GDP growth in the October-December quarter for each week it lasts. But all their initial estimates always mentioned that risks to the economy would grow as the shutdown continued. "There are also knock-on effects on government contractors, other private businesses and consumers that are tougher to anticipate but grow more disruptive to the economy with each passing week," explained the economic ... (full story)

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KimKim23
Oct 23, 2025 6:38pm
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Quoting Trader#E47C
{quote} when the public realize the stock market is measured in the failed currency.... BOOM
Most people often presume that a bullish stock market is synonymous with a booming economy. For most part that would be true, but for America one has to factor in a decade almost of cheap money injections into the stock market and treasury to prop up the 2008 catastrophe, and then the additional 30% increase in dollar money supply during covid. Add Brics increase in membership and the Russia-China selling of US treasuries. I think all this inflation of the dollar is being pushed into the stock market because its the best place to park those excess dollars and it tricks the average joe to pump more money into the market so that when they engineer the next market crash they can erase as much of the public's money as they can plus those inflation dollars they were parking, and have a successful reset for them to begin afresh.
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here2there
Oct 23, 2025 10:42am
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Quoting Trader#0565
Republicans don't care. Democrats don't care. They (all) still get paid. If they didn't. Ahhhh ha! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAWJNjkeQhI
If they weren't getting paid and faced the threat of legal punishment for this shutdown, they wouldn't be messing around like this. The politicians responsible for this mess should be fired, lose their pensions, and never be allowed to work for the government again.
Reply
The Fool
Oct 23, 2025 11:22am
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Trump wants to break his previous 34 day record. He didn't get the Nobel Peas Prize, so at least he'll win the shutdown.
Vancarbon
Oct 24, 2025 1:34am — Edited
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Quoting KimKim23
{quote} Most people often presume that a bullish stock market is synonymous with a booming economy. For most part that would be true, but for America one has to factor in a decade almost of cheap money injections into the stock market and treasury to prop up the 2008 catastrophe, and then the additional 30% increase in dollar money supply during covid. Add Brics increase in membership and the Russia-China selling of US treasuries. I think all this inflation of the dollar is being pushed into the stock market because its the best place to park those...
What’s even more frightening is the fact that the whole of the foundations of this equity market rally are built on 7 stocks.

Trillion dollar companies with global exposure and extreme valuations. That’s dangerous due to the contagion factor and bubble conditions .ETFs , hedge funds and momentum are the only things keeping this game rolling.

I’m not sure the next crash will be engineered, it’ll be a natural event due to the unsustainability
Reply
Vancarbon
Oct 24, 2025 2:20am
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Quoting wizzytech100
I wonder which hurts more,natural event or an engineered one.
I’d say they’re equally as painful. The drawdown on the Liberation Day tariff announcement will be dwarfed by the next drawdown .

I’m not thinking a protracted bear market more a short sharp shock with a 33% drawdown minimum caused by recessionary fears. I envisage it happening next year, the signs are all there in the market.
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wizzytech100
Oct 24, 2025 2:08am
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I wonder which hurts more,natural event or an engineered one.
Reply
Vancarbon
Oct 24, 2025 4:59am
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Quoting wizzytech100
{quote} As they say,ignorance is bliss. Will be looking out for 35T
The US market is a Ponzi scheme in the most literal sense .

The algorithmic trading between the 7 major players is almost mechanical and engineered to keep the scheme afloat .

I can’t think of a better example of a Ponzi than this .
Reply
Trader#A306
Oct 23, 2025 10:15am
Permalink
U.S. economy is in a downward spiral for ages. Thanks to quantitative easing, helicopter money, too big to fail, and other shenanigans - it could get away with it. Now let's shut it down.
Reply
Trader#6D5A
Oct 23, 2025 11:32am
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Quoting The Fool
Trump wants to break his previous 34 day record. He didn't get the Nobel Peas Prize, so at least he'll win the shutdown.
I'd buy that. We'll be hitting ATH's before you know it. Much like that absolute wild animal of a bull. The wall street bull.
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The Fool
Oct 23, 2025 12:51pm
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No pay, no work - was always my motto. Nov 1 is the 1st no-pay payday for a full pay period.

Last time, it was the TSA and air traffic controllers that ended the shut down.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/06/polit...llers-shutdown
The Fool
Oct 23, 2025 12:58pm
Permalink
Quoting LightchaserG
+/- 35 Days shutdown on TACO 1st Term Let's see how far he takes this shutdown, ATH soon on TACO Shutdowns :-p
dog INTC earnings today could tip the bull to bear for tomorrow. I like a 6700 Friday pin.
The Fool
Oct 23, 2025 6:47pm — Edited
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robots (er, I mean, "cobots") can replace most govt workers. Just ask Musk and Bezos...

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/t...bac542169768cd

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/e...152917350.html
The Fool
Oct 24, 2025 5:22am
Permalink
US stocks have tailwinds besides the AI frenzy: the Fed is embarking on an easing cycle; the trade war news no longer seems to matter; consumerism is alive and well, even if it's dominated by the wealthy; US company earnings continue to outperform.

There are things that could deflate the bubble: the AI hyperscalers' capex plans will run into reality about the power requirements; there could be competing hardware/software innovations (from the Chinese) that upset the dominance of US companies; questions about the ultimate profitability of AI could start to dim the long term prospects. None of these are problematic enough now to stop the momentum. Any of them could be...in 2026, 2036, who knows?
Vancarbon
Oct 24, 2025 3:17am
Permalink
Quoting wizzytech100
{quote} True,the red flags have been more visible since 2023,they should have started to engineer one then and make it more controllable for themselfs.Nature is brutal sometimes as we all know
There’s so many red flags yet somehow they’re overlooked , by design or default, I honestly don’t know . Maybe it’s orchestrated this way to reach an inflection point or maybe its nature at its finest and ( as you say ) chaos theory reigns.


btw - expect a comment about me being constantly wrong . A certain individual (35T ) likes to remind me lol
Reply
Schultz
Oct 23, 2025 12:34pm
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On the other hand, haven't about a million illegals been banished recently? (And off topic, apparently ICE are getting quite armoured up recently with chemical weapons and guided missiles, and also some very cool amazing high tech surveillance. I digress).

If anything, Oxford ought to make a few guesses as to the implications of that on a variety of timelines. Throw in the state of the farming community for some spicy soy sauce flavour.

Or maybe it's more convenient to just notice the shutdown of civil servants.
Reply
wizzytech100
Oct 24, 2025 2:46am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I’d say they’re equally as painful. The drawdown on the Liberation Day tariff announcement will be dwarfed by the next drawdown . I’m not thinking a protracted bear market more a short sharp shock with a 33% drawdown minimum caused by recessionary fears. I envisage it happening next year, the signs are all there in the market.
True,the red flags have been more visible since 2023,they should have started to engineer one then and make it more controllable for themselfs.Nature is brutal sometimes as we all know
Reply
wizzytech100
Oct 24, 2025 3:33am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} There’s so many red flags yet somehow they’re overlooked , by design or default, I honestly don’t know . Maybe it’s orchestrated this way to reach an inflection point or maybe its nature at its finest and ( as you say ) chaos theory reigns. btw - expect a comment about me being constantly wrong . A certain individual (35T ) likes to remind me lol
As they say,ignorance is bliss.

Will be looking out for 35T
Reply
wizzytech100
Oct 24, 2025 5:29am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} The US market is a Ponzi scheme in the most literal sense . The algorithmic trading between the 7 major players is almost mechanical and engineered to keep the scheme afloat . I can’t think of a better example of a Ponzi than this .
I think i'm going to watch the Matrix over and over again and try to figure out this ponzi

I'm also watching Bessent very closely
Reply
Trader#0565
Oct 23, 2025 10:23am
Permalink
Republicans don't care. Democrats don't care. They (all) still get paid. If they didn't. Ahhhh ha!

Inserted Video
Reply
Trader#E47C
Oct 23, 2025 4:59pm
Permalink
Quoting Trader#6D5A
{quote} I'd buy that. We'll be hitting ATH's before you know it. Much like that absolute wild animal of a bull. The wall street bull.
when the public realize the stock market is measured in the failed currency.... BOOM
Reply
Vancarbon
Oct 24, 2025 3:12am
Permalink
Quoting Schultz
{quote} Climate change, silly.
You could well be right, alternatively a hundred other , non rational explanations could also be correct .
Reply
LightchaserG
Oct 23, 2025 12:55pm
Permalink
+/- 35 Days shutdown on TACO 1st Term
Let's see how far he takes this shutdown, ATH soon on TACO Shutdowns :-p
Reply
Schultz
Oct 24, 2025 2:45am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I’m not sure the next crash will be engineered, it’ll be a natural event due to the unsustainability
Climate change, silly.
Reply
Trader#BA9E
Oct 23, 2025 10:56am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#F12B
USA is at the brink of collapse and BRICS should stay away from a dead economy!!! Good luck BRICS your future is bright
Most incorrect statement of the day award.
Reply
Trader#F12B
Oct 23, 2025 10:22am
Permalink
USA is at the brink of collapse and BRICS should stay away from a dead economy!!! Good luck BRICS your future is bright
Reply
Trader#6D9B
Oct 23, 2025 10:43am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#A306
U.S. economy is in a downward spiral for ages. Thanks to quantitative easing, helicopter money, too big to fail, and other shenanigans - it could get away with it. Now let's shut it down.
Fear mongering, economy is doing much better than your news channels are telling you
Reply
Trader#0565
Oct 23, 2025 10:48am
Permalink
Quoting here2there
{quote} If they weren't getting paid and faced the threat of legal punishment for this shutdown, they wouldn't be messing around like this. The politicians responsible for this mess should be fired, lose their pensions, and never be allowed to work for the government again.
No need to throw the baby out of the bath water - don't get up on a roof and shoot someone now. Just cut their source of income. Like they are doing to everyone beneath them. Fair's fair, right? Yep. It is.
Reply
Trader#4A50
Oct 23, 2025 3:18pm
Permalink
Quoting The Fool
{quote}dog INTC earnings today could tip the bull to bear for tomorrow. I like a 6700 Friday pin.
Great call on saying into would have a huge gap up to a new high on earnings.

Oh wait. You were 100% wrong as usual perma bear lol.
Reply
Trader#6C25
Oct 23, 2025 12:10pm
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Quoting Trader#6D5A
... wild animal ...
Like, a true, nature's child.

Inserted Video
Reply
Trader#2FDF
Oct 23, 2025 2:21pm
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When the stock market can crash down hard lolzzzz
Reply
Trader#D2BF
Oct 23, 2025 4:31pm
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Are you people a fucking idiot
Reply
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