China’s 3Q GDP slowdown less than feared amid external demand boost

Prices of products manufactured in Canada, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), increased 0.8% month over month in September and gained 5.5% year over year. ...

The Business Outlook Survey was conducted by in-person, video and phone interviews from August 7 to September 3, 2025. The large majority of interviews were conducted before the announcement of the removal of certain Canadian counter-tariffs. The Business Leaders’ Pulse is conducted online every month; the latest results are from July, August and September 2025. This quarter’s publication also includes results from Governing Council outreach as well as special consultations with businesses and industry organizations in trade-sensitive sectors. Overview • Firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment and a slight easing of perceived uncertainty. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales remain soft due to concerns about the broad economic effects of trade tensions. Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2025 The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations was conducted through an online panel from July 31 to August 21, 2025. The survey took place before the Canadian government announced it would remove some counter-tariffs. Follow-up phone interviews took place from August 22 to 28, 2025. Overview • Tariffs and trade tensions continue to affect consumers’ spending plans and perceptions about their financial health. Many survey respondents expressed a desire to prioritize spending on Canadian goods and vacations in Canada. • Consumers saw a further deterioration in the labour market in the third quarter, driven in part by a sharp drop in job-finding prospects for public sector workers. • Consumers continue to think tariffs will generate inflationary pressures. Expectations for short-term inflation remain above their pre-pandemic averages, and expectations for longer-term inflation have picked up again. A large share of survey respondents cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation. BoC Survey: Q3 business service indicator -2.28 from -2.40 in Q2 (revised from -2.42). BANK OF CANADA SURVEY: 27% OF FIRMS REPORTED OUTRIGHT DECLINE IN SALES OVER PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS, UP FROM 24% IN Q2 || 18% OF FIRMS EXPECT INFLATION TO BE ABOVE 3% FOR NEXT 2 YEARS, DOWN FROM 23% IN Q2 BANK OF CANADA SURVEY: 33% OF FIRMS EXPECT CANADA TO BE IN A RECESSION OVER THE NEXT YEAR, UP FROM 28% IN Q2 || 35% OF FIRMS EXPECT LOWER LABOR COSTS OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS, 14% SEE HIGHER LABOR COSTS