Canada's Ivey PMI Rises to 15-Month High in September

ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: FED CAN'T JUST BE REACTIVE; HAVE TO GAUGE FUTURE BEST AS POSSIBLE; TRY TO BE AS ANALYTICAL AS POSSIBLE; ALWAYS CRITICISM #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: HOUSING AFFORDABILITY A COMPLAINT 'EVERYWHERE,' URBAN, RURAL, AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN; HOUSING ALWAYS TRYING TO CATCH UP #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: WITH SO MANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES UNDERWAY, FROM IMMIGRATION, TARIFFS TO A.I., THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME TO MAKE POLICY #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Bostic: Turbulence is leading firms and households to be cautious. ATL FED'S BOSTIC Q&A/FISK: ATMOSPHERE OF CAUTION DOESN'T MEAN CATASTROPHE 'IS ON THE HORIZON;' BUT CONSUMER 'PRECAUTIONARY ACTIVITY' WIDESPREAD #Bostic #FederalReserve #economy

Welcome to the 2025 community banking research conference.1 While I regret that I cannot join you in person this year, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge the contributions this conference has made and continues to make in promoting research on community banking and related issues. Since 2013, this conference has synthesized insights and perspectives from research and regulatory and banking communities with a single goal: deepening our understanding of the community bank business model in order to better inform future policy decisions. We share this goal, and the sponsorship of this event with the Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). We are proud of this ongoing partnership with CSBS and FDIC and the effort to further actionable bank industry research. As the former Kansas state bank commissioner and a community banker, I very much appreciate the goals of this conference. And again this year, the organizers have included valuable research and created a conference program that includes a wide range of perspectives that create an opportunity for discussion and debate. Ensuring the future and viability of the community banking industry continues to be a top priority, especially as the President appointed me to serve as the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board. This position, which was created under the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, requires the Vice Chair to "develop policy recommendations for the Board regarding supervision and regulation of depository institution holding companies and other financial firms supervised by the Board" and to also "oversee the supervision and regulation" of these firms. It is an honor and an absolute privilege to be entrusted with these important responsibilities, and I look forward to working with all of our stakeholders in the financial industry to modernize supervision and regulation that allows for continued economic growth and innovation in the banking system and that enhances the critical role of community banks. Community banks are the cornerstone of local economies, providing credit to local customers and businesses with few alternatives for accessing financial services. The community bank relationship model requires just that relationship. Direct knowledge of and a connection with the community, which makes this banking model truly unique and even more valuable. But this model continues to face challenges—challenges that I am confident this conference will explore in greater detail that will help us to inform f Fed Vice Chair Bowman Did Not Talk About Money Policy or Economy During Community Banking Event

FED'S MIRAN: GROWTH IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR WAS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AMID UNCERTAINTY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY HAS LIFTED THERE ARE REASONS TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC GOING FORWARD ON UNCERTIANTY LIFTING FED'S MIRAN: IF ECONOMY DOES WELL IT DOESN'T HAVE FIRM IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS COME DOWN WHICH MAKES POLICY MORE RESTRICTIVE RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY HAS RISKS THERE ARE RISKS IF MONETARY POLICY ISN'T ADJUSTED Fed's Miran: MonPol Should Be Forward Looking Given Lags Of Policy Impact - ‘More Sanguine’ On Inflation Outlook Than Many Others Fed's Miran: My best attempt at a real neutral rate estimate is 0.5%. *Looks in disappointment* Fed's Miran Says Market Reactions Offer Useful Feedback and Bond Market Support Boosts Push for Faster Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short- and longer-term horizons and were unchanged at the medium-term horizon. Despite a small rebound in the expected job finding rate, labor market expectations continued to deteriorate with consumers reporting lower expected earnings growth, greater likelihoods of losing jobs, and a higher likelihood of a rise in overall unemployment. The survey was fielded from September 1 through September 30, 2025. The main findings from the September 2025 Survey are: *NY FED: MORE HOUSEHOLDS REPORT BEING BETTER OFF THAN YEAR AGO *NY FED: HOUSEHOLDS' OUTLOOK FOR LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES NY FED: SEPTEMBER YEAR-AHEAD EXPECTED FOOD PRICE RISE HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2023 *NY FED: 1Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3.4% VS 3.2% *NY FED: 5Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN SEPT 3% VS 2.9% *NY FED: 3Y CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNCHANGED AT 3%