US business surveys strengthen the case for rate cuts

Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010. The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in September, with a reading of 50.4 percent, down 5.6 percent from August’s figure of 56 percent. The Employment Index remained in contraction territory for the fourth month in a row and the fifth time in the last six months; the reading of 47.2 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.5 percent recorded in August. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.6 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in August and its highest reading since February (53.4 percent). This is the 10th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) “The Prices Index registered 69.4 percent in September, a 0.2-percentage point increase from August’s reading of 69.2 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 10 straight months, its longest such streak since 30 consecutive readings above 60 percent from October 2020 to March 2023. *US SEPT. ISM SERVICES PMI FALLS TO 50 FROM 52; EST. 51.7 - BBG *US ISM SERVICES BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT 49.9, LOWEST SINCE 2020 *US SEPT. ISM SERVICES PRICES PAID INDEX RISES TO 69.4 VS 69.2 ISM: US services sector growth down in September Economic activity in the United States' services sector continued to grow in September, but at a slower pace, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed in its report published on Friday. Compared to the previous month, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) went from 52% to 50%, failing expectations. The Business Activity Index declined from 55% to 49.9%, entering the contraction territory. The Employment Index remained in contraction, but improved slightly, going from 46.5% to 47.2%. The New Orders Index decreased from 56% to 50.4%. The Supplier Deliveries Index improved from 50.3% to 52.6.% "Commentary in general indicated moderate or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff," Business Survey Committee Chair Steve Miller commented.

Federal Reserve officials are officially flying blind as a government shutdown precluded Friday’s release of a key monthly jobs report, arguably the most important data needed to make a decision about the future path of monetary policy at a meeting later this month. But markets don't appear to be concerned that unanswered questions about the health of the ...

September’s S&P Global PMI® survey of US private service sector companies signaled a further, but nonetheless weaker, expansion of business activity. Slower growth was linked to a softer expansion of new work, despite an improvement in foreign demand for the first time in six months. Meanwhile, sentiment regarding the outlook strengthened, linked in some ...