Gold Surges to New Record as Shutdown Fears Boost Haven Appeal

It is a pleasure to welcome you all to the Dallas Fed and to thank you for sharing your perspectives with us. The insights you share help me form my assessment of our region’s economy and shape my overall outlook. The U.S. economy is at a key moment for monetary policy. More than four years after the postpandemic inflation surge began, inflation remains above the 2 percent target set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At the same time, payroll job growth slowed markedly this year. Against this backdrop, the FOMC recently voted to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months, and FOMC participants’ economic projections reflected a divergence of views on where policy should go from here. Congress gave the FOMC a dual mandate: to set monetary policy to deliver both price stability and maximum employment. I supported the FOMC’s rate cut earlier this month because it helped better balance the risk of slowing the labor market too much against the ongoing imperative to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target. However, I am also committed to finishing the job of sustainably restoring price stability. As I consider the path ahead, three features of the economy stand out to me at this time. First, even setting aside temporary effects of this year’s increases in tariff rates, inflation is not convincingly on track to return all the way to 2 percent. Second, aggregate demand remains resilient, supported by consumption, business investment and buoyant financial conditions. Third, while the labor market has undeniably slowed, with meaningful costs to workers, not all of the weakness represents economic slack that less-restrictive monetary policy can ameliorate. The combination of persistent inflation, resilient demand and modest labor market slack indicates to me that policy is likely only modestly restrictive. There may be relatively little room to make additional rate cuts without inadvertently moving to an inappropriately accommodative stance. Of course, economic outlooks are inherently uncertain, and the outlook now is more uncertain than usual. In these remarks, I will lay out the key elements of my economic outlook and why they lead me to conclude that the FOMC should proceed cautiously on further rate cuts. As always, these are my views and not necessarily those of my FOMC colleagues. Inflationary pressures persist DALLAS FED'S LOGAN: 'THERE MAY BE RELATIVELY LITTLE ROOM TO MAKE ADDITIONAL RATE CUTS WITHOUT GET TOO ACCOMMODATIVE #Logan #FederalReserve #economy DALLAS FED PRESIDENT LORIE LOGAN WARNED THAT THE U.S. LABOR MARKET MAY NEED TO WEAKEN FURTHER FOR INFLATION TO SUSTAINABLY REACH THE 2% TARGET, NOTING INFLATION COULD STILL RUN NEAR 2.4% EVEN WITHOUT TARIFF EFFECTS. LOGAN SAID FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE ACTING AS A TAILWIND, WIT…