A little over four hours before the FOMC meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) meet and look set to get the rate-cut party started. After poor employment reports in July and August, market pricing in CAD swaps implies an 84% probability that the BoC will cut rates. The Norges Bank (meeting 18 Sept) may also lower rates, although that is a closer call — NOK interest rate swaps imply a 60% probability of a cut, while the majority of economists also forecast a cut. I’m not one to promote trading over a central bank meeting — that is a fine art and often best left to the high frequency algos — but there is a real risk that ... (full story)