New round of US-China trade talks kicks off in Madrid | Metals Mine

  • New round of US-China trade talks kicks off in Madrid

    From brecorder.com

    China and the United States kicked off the latest round of trade talks on Sunday in Madrid, where they are set to thrash out their TikTok dispute and President Donald Trump’s promised hefty tariffs. The Chinese delegation is in the Spanish capital until Wednesday and senior officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng, will meet with the US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Spanish government said Sunday’s talks got under way at the Palacio de Santa Cruz, the headquarters of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Trade tensions between Beijing and Washington have been on a rollercoaster ride in ... (full story)

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ntrpy
Sep 14, 2025 4:23pm
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CNY | PBoC - Macro Flash Note

The Narrative & Current Regime:
• PBoC face stalled/uneven economic recovery after significant domestic headwinds but receiving significant tailwind from broad US dollar weakness.
• Key data from China this Monday will set tone for the week.
• China is in fragile recovery regime, dependent on services sector and government stimulus to avoid broader slowdown.
• Disinflationary pressures from weak domestic demand give PBoC clear runway to continue its easing policy.

Forecast Logic & Key Drivers:
• What is driving growth?
○ Stagnation; growth being driven by services sector while manufacturing contracts.
○ Key release is Monday's Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
• What is driving rates?
○ The PBoC's Easing Bias; monetary policy is main lever being pulled, creating stark divergence w/ most other major central banks (excluding Fed).
• What is driving inflation?
○ Disinflationary Pressures; last week's negative CPI print confirmed weak domestic demand as primary issue, giving PBoC clear runway to continue easing policy.

Key Risk / Counterpoint to View:
• Base Case: Yuan remains under structural pressure but is supported in N/T by broad USD weakness. Strong set of data on Monday could provide further boost to risk sentiment.
Key Risk / Counterpoint: Much weaker-than-expected data dump on Monday would re-ignite global slowdown fears and could overwhelm positive sentiment from weak dollar, putting renewed depreciation pressure on the Yuan.

Happy hunting!
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