September’s meeting almost certainly won’t result in another rate cut, with policymakers instead poised to keep rates at 4% on 18 September. But the prospect of a November cut hangs in the balance, and this meeting will be heavily scrutinised for hints on whether officials are still considering further easing this year. The first thing to watch is the vote split. Our best guess is that six officials will vote to keep rates on hold, with three voting for another 25bp cut. Those dissenters are likely to include Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, the latter of whom initially voted for a 50bp cut in August (before changing ... (full story)