U.S. Economic Outlook: September 2025

Thank you for the chance to join the conference for the regulatory fireside chat. It’s the fourth year in a row that I’ve had the opportunity to participate, and the first time as Governor under this interim 6-month term. I want to acknowledge that it’s been a challenging period for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as we face a test of trust and confidence in us as an organisation. It's typical for the RBNZ to be “in the news” for our policy decisions, publications and research. But for too long this year the RBNZ has been “the news”, following the departure of the Governor in March, the loss of our Board Chair in August, and everything in between. Trust and confidence in our economic institutions is what underpins our financial system and supports economic prosperity for New Zealanders. That is why I want to assure you that we are resolutely focused on our mandate of delivering low and stable inflation in medium term, and a resilient and enabling financial system. Because this is our best contribution to enable you and your clients to have the confidence to Transform for Tomorrow – the theme of this year’s conference. One of the things that gives me confidence that we are well placed to deliver on our mandate is the governance changes that we have undergone, as part of our own transformation over the past 7 years. Previously, from a legal perspective, the Governor was the RBNZ, as the sole decision maker on monetary policy, and all other policy and operational matters. Rolling the clock forward, we now have a well-established Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) responsible for formulating monetary RBNZ GOVERNOR HAWKESBY: CENTRAL PROJECTION FOR OCR TO DROP TO ABOUT 2.50% BY END OF YEAR, BUT THAT COULD HAPPEN FASTER OR SLOWER BASED ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY EVOLUTION ... RBNZ GOVERNOR HAWKESBY: SPEED OF NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC RECOVERY WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR INFLUENCING THE FUTURE PATH OF THE OCR ...