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Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat
The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though more unwelcome news from the labor market is expected with next week's BLS annual benchmark revisions that could wipe out 500k-1 mln jobs (the adjustment last year was 818k lower), the risk of a large Fed cut may be exaggerated. An acceleration in headline CPI (September 11) may temper the enthusiasm for a large move. The ECB meeting is on Thursday, and the staff will update economic projections. There is little doubt, but that central bank will stand pat. Political developments may be more important. ... (full story)
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