Rate-cut expectations surged this morning following the weak labor market signals from the payrolls report with 2025 now pricing in 3 full cuts... {chart} As we predicted, the chance of a 50bps cut in September are also rising, but for now it appears 25bps in each of Sept, Oct, and Dec is the most likely outcome... {chart} As The Wall Street Journal's fed Whisperer, Nick Timiraos, pointed out in a brief post on X: "Weak hiring this summer will make it easier for Fed policymakers to agree on a 25 bps cut at their meeting in two weeks but further muddies the debate over the pace of cuts after that." Consensus across ... (full story)