What Job Numbers This Friday Will It Take For The Fed To Cut by 50bps

Federal Reserve's Williams Says "Clearly The Case Downside Employment Risks Increased" Fed's Williams: My concern is that the job market cools further than desirable. FED'S WILLIAMS: OVERALL TREND IN SERVICES INFLATION HAS BEEN FAVORABLE CORE GOODS INFLATION HAS SHIFTED HIGHER ON TARIFFS MY BASE CASE IS TARIFFS STAY IN PLACE, BUT DOES CONSIDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS EXPECTS TARIFF IMPACT TO PLAY OUT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR

Thank you for the kind introduction. I’m delighted to be back at the Economic Club of New York. I’ve worn many hats here at the Club: one as a longtime member, one as a repeat guest, and one as chair. I am pleased to see how the Club’s programming continues to evolve in service of its important mission. Before turning to the conversation with Sonali Basak and taking your questions, I’d like to take the next 10 minutes or so to share my outlook for the economy and how I see the path forward in the current moment. I’ll put my Federal Reserve hat back on now and give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve's Williams Says He Foresees Slow Interest Rate Cuts If Economy Meets Expectations || Fed Needs To Balance Inflation And Job Risks Now NY FED’S WILLIAMS: WILL NEED TO MOVE FED FUNDS RATE TOWARD NEUTRAL; GIVES NO TIMETABLE #FOMC #interestrates FED'S WILLIAMS: NOT SEEING SECOND-ORDER TARIFF EFFECTS ON INFLATION Fed's Williams: Always Monitoring Overall Data Trends, Not Just a Single Report - Sees Gradual Cooling In Job Market But It’s Still In Reasonably Good Place - Consumers Have Seemed A Little Bit Shaky In Soft Data, Not So Much In Hard Data