US: We are moving towards a stagflation situation, says Komal Sri-Kumar

Key statistics • Total new capital expenditure rose by 0.2% • Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 0.3% • Buildings and structures rose by 0.2% • Estimate 3 for 2025-26 is ...

I will first briefly touch on the current situation of overseas economies (Chart 1). Although tariff negotiations between the Japanese and U.S. governments have resulted in an agreement recently, and progress has been made in negotiations and agreements on trade and other policies in each jurisdiction, there remain many uncertainties in this regard. With respect to global business sentiment, as of July 2025, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the services industry has been clearly above 50 -- the break-even point between improvement and deterioration -- while the PMI for the manufacturing industry has been at around 50. Let me outline the projected growth rate of the global economy in terms of the weighted averages, which are calculated using countries' share in Japan's exports as weights and the growth rate in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Specifically, it is projected that the growth rate for 2025 and 2026 will decelerate to the range of 2.5-3.0 percent, and the rate for 2027 will return to around 3 percent, which is broadly in line with the average growth rate since 1980. These projections for 2025 and 2026, released in July, have been revised slightly upward from those in April. BOJ BOARD MEMBER NAKAGAWA: IF ITS OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND PRICES IS REALIZED, BOJ WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE POLICY INTEREST RATE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN OVER FUTURE COURSE OF TRADE POLICIES AND THEIR IMPACT BOJ WILL MAKE MONETARY APPROPRIATE POLICY DECISIONS BY… BOJ Nakagawa: High uncertainties remain over future course of trade policies and their impact BOJ'S NAKAGAWA: MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE RISEN MODERATELY ON THE WHOLE