August has so far been shaped by a tug-of-war between supportive supply-side stories in parts of the commodity market and macro headwinds from weakening economic data in the US and around the world. The latest US inflation data, in the form of a hotter-than-expected July PPI, forced markets to recalibrate their Fed expectations. Just a day after Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, called for an aggressive 150 bp rate cut, the data cooled talk of a jumbo move in September, with the market now firmly pricing in a modest 25 bp reduction. US 10-year Treasury yields nevertheless have edged lower during the ... (full story)