Will Powell use Jackson Hole speech to push back on hopes for September rate cut?

It maybe is not up to the Fed or to JPow anymore, but the last word will be had by the bond vigilantes. One scenario is the Fed starts cutting in Sept, with something more than 25bps. And equities melt-up even more. But the bond market responds with flight from the long bonds. This is what happened with the 100bps cut in 2024.

There is still inflation. Not all of it is within the bounds of the comfort zone, should components be looked at.

Core services (quite a significant part of expenditure) have increased now for two periods to I think 3.2% annually, and are at the highest level in six months. Higher, if calculated quarterly - closer to 4%.

Nothing to do with tariffs. What if they kick in down the track? I think they will.

The US and the world has just come out of high inflation. It needs to stabilise. There will be blips both up and down - these things rarely happen in a well behaved manner.

The saying goes (and there is some merit in this) that once the inflation genie is out of the bottle it is very hard to put back in. It is not a given that inflation is back in the bottle.

The Fed has held rates steady this far this year, worried that higher inflation would appear.

GDP growth remains fairly stable. Hawkish.

What reason is there to trust any jobs numbers anymore, whatever they are? I mean, really, they are as loose as a rubber band.

Evict how many (??) migrants from the working population will slow down economic growth. That's a given, dovish.

Unrelenting pressure from the White House and from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has upped the stakes.

pfft. Irrelevant, and they know it.

Will JPow go down swinging? Get real.

Hot PPI and very little reaction in bonds, moderate move down in equities. Complacency.

Every single indicator in the Kingdom of Trumpland is red, the problem is inflation.

Trump want rate cut so he create mess in business all over the world to pressure feds? hmm

The idea that the economy can't survive without a cut makes very little sense