Fed’s Bostic: Strong Labor Market Gives Room To Wait On Policy Move

Governing Council members began their deliberations by discussing global economic developments. As in June, the focus of the discussion was ongoing tariffs and trade negotiations between the United States and other countries. Some important trade agreements had been announced, notably with Japan and the European Union, and the risk of an escalating and protracted global trade war had diminished. While uncertainty was still very high, it was clear that the United States is no longer willing to engage in free and open trade. Members discussed the implications of this shift for economic growth going forward as trade is reconfigured and companies adjust to new trading relationships. Members agreed that, so far, the global economy had shown more resilience to the trade turmoil than had been expected. Data at the time of the deliberations showed that in the United States, domestic demand was being held up by a solid labour market, investment related to artificial intelligence, and a recovery in equity markets. However, US growth had been moderating—household spending had slowed with greater uncertainty about trade policy weighing on consumer confidence. China’s growth had also slowed, although higher exports to other countries compensated for lower exports to the United States. Growth in the euro area had moderated, reflecting slower growth in domestic demand. Members discussed recent financial conditions, which had recovered strongly since the turmoil in April. They noted that equity and other risk asset prices were back up to levels seen at the beginning of the year, apparently responding to markets’ assessments that tariffs and their impacts would be less severe than anticipated. Longer-term government bond yields were also up in many countries because of high current and anticipated sovereign debt issuance and revised expectations about the degree of monetary policy easing. The Canadian dollar had strengthened against the US dollar but weakened against other currencies. BoC Minutes: Some Saw Stimulus As Sufficient Before July 30 Rate Call BoC Minutes: Others Backed More Stimulus; Council Debated Policy Role In Economic Upheaval BoC Minutes: Council Wants More Clarity; Inflation Expectations Still Anchored

GOOLSBEE: TARIFFS ARE A STAGFLATIONARY SHOCK UNEASY ABOUT VIEW OF TARIFFS AS A ONE-TIME SHOCK THAT CREATES ONLY TRANSITORY INFLATION Fed’s Goolsbee: Fed Meetings In Autumn Are Going To Be Live Fed's Goolsbee: Sharply lower job gains may reflect transition period on immigration.