Trump: Trillions of dollars being taken in on tariffs, have not caused Inflation

Thank you for having me here. As Jennie mentioned in that kind introduction, I spend a lot of my time meeting with business and community leaders to understand the regional and national economy. I take those learnings to Washington, D.C., to help inform the monetary policymaking process. The health care sector is a major engine behind the U.S. economy, so I’m interested to learn more about what you’re seeing. To set the stage, I’ll briefly share my own thoughts on the broader economy, but then I look forward to hearing from you. These thoughts are mine alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. Improved Visibility Over the last several months, I’ve been saying, “It’s really hard to drive when it’s foggy.” In the context of high uncertainty about the implications of government policy changes, businesses have been on pause. They haven’t wanted to press on the gas; who knows what lies around the next curve. They also haven’t wanted to slam on their brakes; someone could run into them. So, I like to describe them as pulled over, with their hazards on, waiting for more clarity. This hesitation, present among consumers as well, appears to have quieted the economy’s momentum. GDP growth slowed to 1.2 percent in the first half of the year, down from 2.5 percent last year. Job gains have also slowed, with the three-month average down to 35,000 (less than a third of the average 127,000 added in February through April). But the fog is lifting. The tax bill has passed. Net immigrati RICHMOND FED’S BARKIN: MAY WELL SEE PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT, BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS UNCLEAR Fed's Barkin: Employment could take a hit if consumers do pull back, but hopeful large layoffs will be avoided. BARKIN Says Spending Has Eased, But A Major Cut Is Unlikely Due To Low Joblessness And Continuing Wage Growth RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN/CHICAGO: BALANCE OF PRESSURE ON INFLATION AND EMPLOYMENT 'STILL UNCLEAR;' FED POLICY WELL POSITIONED TO REACT #Barkin #FederalReserve #economy

Thank you for having me today. I appreciate the opportunity to talk with you, and I look forward to our discussion. I will start with a few words about the Federal Reserve and what we do before turning to the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. The Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve is America’s central bank. It was established by an act of Congress in 1913. The structure of the system, with a seven-member Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., and 12 independent and geographically defined district banks across the country, owes much to the state of Oklahoma. Sen. Robert L. Owen, one of Oklahoma’s first senators, sponsored the Federal Reserve Act. Sen. Owen believed that the United States would be best served by a central bank directly engaged with communities across the United States. As such, the Act established a regional structure for the Federal Reserve, with each district bank serving its region and representing its geography in the national discussion of monetary policy. That is what we do at the Kansas City Fed. It is what we do from our office here in Oklahoma City, and what we do across our district’s seven-state region of western Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and northern New Mexico. The regional structure of the Fed allows for voices across the nation to inform the setting of policy, and staff from our bank, including Oklahoma City Branch Executive Cortney Cowley, are in regular contact with business and community leaders throughout the district, collecting information and views that can be brought to the national conversation. For me, meetings such as this one are an opportunity to collect insights that I can bring to Washington, a KC FED'S SCHMID/OKLAHOMA CITY: TARIFFS SO FAR 'SEEM TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECT ON INFLATION;' MAY NEVER HAVE TOTAL CLARITY ON TARIFFS EFFECT #Schmid #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Schmid Says Keeping Slightly Restrictive Policy Is Currently Suitable and Supports a Patient Approach to Changing Interest Rates Fed's Schmid: The tariffs' limited effect on inflation is a reason to keep policy on hold, not an opportunity to cut rates. Fed's Schmid: I will modify my views if I see demand diminishing.