The Fed’s Pivot Point Just Arrived | Metals Mine

  • The Fed’s Pivot Point Just Arrived

    From brownstoneresearch.com

    It was the jobs report heard around the world. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) dropped a bombshell. The U.S. economy supposedly only added 73,000 jobs in July. That’s far below the 100,000 expected. But that wasn’t the real shock. The gut punch to the markets came in the revisions. The BLS quietly slashed its prior estimates for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs. That’s the largest two-month downward revision – outside of a pandemic – in more than 40 years. graph Think about that. For months, economists and policymakers have been making decisions based on faulty numbers… And only ... (full story)

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nbfx
Aug 6, 2025 6:00am
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"Unfortunately, this isn’t a one-off.

Just last August, the BLS admitted it had overstated job growth from April 2023 to March 2024 by 818,000 jobs. That’s nearly 70,000 jobs per month. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a systemic failure and symbolic of the gross inaccuracy of the BLS data.

If this kind of mistake happened in the private sector, the leadership team would be shown the door. A total overhaul would follow, along with a modernized data collection and analysis process.

But this is the federal government. There’s an abundance of political motivations. So here we are.

And that raises the obvious question: Until the process is fixed, how can investors trust these numbers at all?"

Over many years I've had issues with the various reports due to the methodology. Fix the methodology and make it reliable and credible, but DON'T leave the door open for political influence such that the reports to say what is politically expedient at the time...
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Schultz
Aug 6, 2025 8:39am
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Quoting nbfx
Over many years I've had issues with the various reports due to the methodology. Fix the methodology and make it reliable and credible
I wrote something along these lines the other day - other countries use the internet, provided software and required reporting dates, and that the USA is miles behind state of the art.

Now I read from the article -

"My preferred measure? The ADP National Employment Report.

It draws from real payroll records at over 500,000 businesses that ADP provides payroll support for. It doesn’t rely on snail-mailed surveys or bureaucratic guesswork or “seasonal” adjustments. It’s digital. It’s factual. It’s timely. And it reflects what’s actually happening in the private economy.

ADP reported just 104,000 private jobs in July. That’s just about exactly the number that was expected."

Now that is nearly exactly what I was alluding to. Big sigh of relief.

Some massaging would still be required, like extrapolating based on known reliable factors, and seasonal adjustments which actually make sense despite what the author says.
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wzirMusa
Aug 6, 2025 7:01am
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so us dollar gonna weaker that is allow as to see bullish trend on aginest us curncy
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