Japan Trade Balance Total (Seasonally Adjusted)

Good evening. I’m pleased to see my fellow economists and colleagues enjoying a long summer evening in the city in the best way possible—indoors and prepared for a robust discussion on the economic outlook. I’ve been looking forward to this conversation for some time. But before we turn to the discussion and Q&A, I’d like to take a few minutes at the start of the program to share my assessment of recent economic data and how it’s informing my outlook for the economy. Particularly, I’ll explain what the data are telling us in light of economic uncertainty, and how I expect the effects of tariffs to take shape. Now is when I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. FED’S WILLIAMS: CURRENT ‘MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE’ MONETARY POLICY IS APPROPRIATE CURRENT STATE OF INTEREST RATE POLICY ALLOWS FED TIME TO ANALYZE DATA TARIFF IMPACT MODEST SO FAR BUT WILL INCREASE OVER TIME TARIFFS SHOULD BOOST INFLATION ONE PERCENTAGE POINT REST OF 2025 INTO…

Williams: still have a ways to go to achieve 2% inflation target Fed Williams: Dollar remains global reserve currency, no changes Fed’s Williams still needs to see more data before deciding what's next for policy