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China’s trade growth rebounds after tariff de-escalation, offering a boost to first-half growth
China's June export growth rebounded to 5.8% year on year from 4.8% in May. The growth was a little stronger than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecasts, and we saw a smaller tariff shock in June in the first full month of data after the tariff de-escalation in May. Through the first half of 2025, exports grew by 5.9% YoY, which is in line with the full year export growth from 2024. China's exports to the US remained in negative territory at -16.1% YoY in June, though this decline was notably shallower compared to the -34.5% YoY decline seen in May. Despite the de-escalation, US tariffs on China remain ... (full story)