New Inflation Data Next Week—This Is a Big One | Metals Mine

  • New Inflation Data Next Week—This Is a Big One

    From economics.bmo.com

    All eyes will be on Tuesday’s CPI data as the Fed ponders the inflationary impacts of the tariffs and whether it can resume rate cuts in the Fall as the market currently expects. So far, the effects appear to be limited. Goods price inflation remains muted through May, but the trade war is far from over. After a temporary truce to allow for negotiations, the President announced another round of tariffs on more than 20 countries with a new 50% tariff on copper by August 1. If implemented, we estimate that the average effective tariff rate in the United States would rise from the current 15% to around 18%, the ... (full story)

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CycleGF
Jul 11, 2025 9:17pm
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Obviously, CPI data will show most likely the consumer products prices went up higher ...so, CPI and PPI both are most likely higher ... The US has already collected Billions in Custom Tarrif so far ....so, it's a no brainer.... The real mess will start when the Fed either leaves the rates unchanged in expectations of higher inflation due to more Tariffs
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Schultz
Jul 12, 2025 3:02am
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I don't think that it will be so obvious, mainly for one reason, but there are others. I think that there is the possibility (and certainly some survey evidence) that US businesses (whether they be anywhere in the chain from importers to retailers) have been absorbing some of the tariff cost.

This can only be short term. I reckon the numbers to watch out for will be down the track, and that is anyone's guess. Perhaps another three or six months, maybe more, is mine, and that s just for primary.

Wait for secondary effects when goods produced in the US with imported components starts to kick in. Then look out.
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Trader#AC9F
Jul 12, 2025 1:25am
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Courtesy of ChatGPT:

"Here’s the summary of the average inflation rates for key categories over the past year (from July 2024 to July 2025):

1. Food Inflation:
Average: ~6.5% for food items at home (groceries).

2. Energy Inflation:
Average: ~7.3% for energy prices (gasoline, electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil).

3. Home Price Inflation:
Average: ~3.0% for U.S. home prices.

So, the average inflation rate for food, energy, and home prices combined is 5.6%."

This is obviously much higher and much more realistic than the reported 2.4% which feels like a lie and it is a lie.

Fed should, by this theory, have rates north of 6% and even more.
It doesn't take a genius to understand that the policy is completely loose. Stock market at record high, Gold at record high, weaker and weaker USD, problems in the debt market.
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EminexFx
Jul 12, 2025 7:00pm
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Wow
Great so which market is showing bullish this week.. so I can join earlier adapters
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Trader#07C4
Jul 12, 2025 4:48am
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Yeah likely CPI and PPI both are most likely goes up higher,,so then we calculate the expectations..numBerDar
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