June Auto Sales: Clouds Over the Horizon as Sales Slow at the End of a Strong 2025H1

Committee participants continued their discussions related to their review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, with a focus on issues related to assessing the risks and uncertainty that are relevant for monetary policy and the potential implications of these issues for the FOMC's policy strategy and communications. The staff reviewed qualitative and quantitative tools that are commonly used to measure uncertainty about the economic outlook and the balance of risks, drawing on U.S. and international experience. The staff then discussed monetary policy strategies that aim to be robust to a variety of economic environments and ways in which risk-management considerations can be incorporated into monetary policy analysis and decisionmaking. The staff also considered the role of scenario analysis as a tool to communicate to the public risks and uncertainty around the economic outlook and their implications for monetary policy. Participants noted that risks and uncertainty are important factors affecting their decisionmaking and emphasized the need for a policy strategy that aims to achieve the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability objectives across a wide range of highly uncertain developments. Participants acknowledged that risks and uncertainty about the economy are pervasive and pose challenges to both the design and communication of monetary policy. They remarked that measuring and assessing risks and uncertainty are difficult and that the Committee has been well served by relying on a wide range of indicators, as well as information from business and community contacts, to gauge evolving risks, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty. Fed Minutes: Several participants said the Fed funds rate may not be far above its neutral rate. Fed Minutes: Participants agreed risks of higher inflation, weaker labor market conditions had diminished but remained elevated. <=USD>:?*FED: MOST SAW RISK OF PERSISTENT TARIFF IMPACT ON INFLATION *FED MINUTES: MAJORITY SAW SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH GOING FORWARD *FED: SEVERAL OBSERVED TARIFF PASS-THROUGH MAY BE LIMITED *FED: MANY EXPECTED GRADUAL SOFTENING OF LABOR CONDITIONS ?*FED: HAD… MOST PARTICIPANTS AT THE FED'S JUNE 17-18 MEETING SAW SOME REDUCTION IN THE FED FUNDS RATE THIS YEAR AS APPROPRIATE, MEETING MINUTES SHOW FED MINUTES: A COUPLE OF PARTICIPANTS SAID THEY WOULD BE OPEN TO CONSIDERING A RATE CUT AS SOON AS JULY MEETING IF DATA EVOLVED AS THEY…

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