Fed Versus Trump on Tariffs Impact Will Soon Be Put to Test

*EU TO ACCEPT TRUMP’S UNIVERSAL TARIFF BUT SEEKS KEY EXEMPTIONS EU willing to accept 10% universal tariff on U.S. imports of EU products, but looks for lower rates on pharma, alcohol, semis, autos, and commercial aircraft pic.twitter.com/jn0rXgtCBs

CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/ASPEN IDEAS: US MICH SENTIMENT SURVEY RESULTS MAKE OUTLOOK VALIDITY WORSE IN RECENT YRS; US MICH PESSIMISM NOT BORNE OUT #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/ASPEN: BREAKEVEN MONTHLY BLS JOBS RPT USED TO BE AROUND 85,000; BUT MUCH LARGER RESULTS THEN MASSIVELY INFLUENCED BY IMMIGRATION, AN EXAMPLE OF HOW DATA RESULTS CAN CONTINUALLY EVOLVE #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/ASPEN: SENTIMENT CAN BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY MEDIA, ONE EXAMPLE BEING 1992 'RECESSION' INFLUENCING ELECTION BUT WHICH WAS ACTUALLY NONEXISTENT #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/ASPEN: AMID PESSIMISTIC VIEWS OF THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF FUTURE TARIFFS, MUST REMEMBER IMPORTED GOODS ONLY 11% OF ECONOMY #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy

As Nietzsche once observed, “it is our future that lays down the law of our today.” When we last reviewed our strategy four years ago, our thinking was shaped – quite naturally – by the recent past: a decade of too-low inflation, compounded by the pandemic. But as Nietzsche warned, there is a danger in letting the past dominate our thinking. Sometimes, it is the future – still dimly understood – that is already shaping our present. And soon after that review, the world changed in ways we had not foreseen. The reopening of our economies after the pandemic brought about major sectoral shifts. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a fundamental shift in energy markets. The geopolitical landscape was upended, reshaping global trade. And structural changes in labour markets became increasingly apparent – driven by demographics, technological transformation, and evolving worker preferences. Given all these developments, the fundamentals of our strategy have held up well – as they should, because a sound strategy must be robust to a changing environment. Our symmetric 2% inflation target has proven effective in anchoring expectations – even throug ECB'S LAGARDE: THE WORLD AHEAD IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND THAT IS LIKELY TO MAKE INFLATION MORE VOLATILE