US growth slips lower as goods prices jump higher, but job gains accelerate | Metals Mine

  • US growth slips lower as goods prices jump higher, but job gains accelerate

    From pmi.spglobal.com

    US business activity continued to grow in June, though the overall rate of expansion lost a little momentum to remain well below those seen late last year. Falling exports of goods and services acted as a drag on growth, in part offset by stock building by US companies, often linked to concerns over tariffs. Tariffs were also widely blamed on higher prices. These rose at an especially sharp and increased rate in manufacturing, but also continued to rise steeply in services. Companies meanwhile struggled to meet rising workloads, with backlogs of work increasing at the fastest rate for over three years and encouraging ... (full story)

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ffghost
Jun 23, 2025 10:07am
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"Tariffs were also widely blamed on higher prices" who writes these things? Shouldn't that read: "higher prices were widely blamed on tariffs"? Or, "tariffs were widely blamed FOR higher prices"? I am not an English major but.....


Even the first sentence: "US business activity continued to grow in June, though the overall rate of expansion lost a little momentum to remain well below those seen late last year. " 'those'? Poor pronoun game here. To what does 'those' (plural) reference? "Well below THAT seen late last year"? (Or even if multiple months of data was intended to be compared, maybe "....below the momentum seen....." Redundant, but more to the point)


But yeah VC, no inflation...deflation even. I mean countries are just GIVING the US money now. For free. No borrowing cost. Just straight up gifts because we are such nice folks. Everyone loves us. Maybe more than ever in history. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. I mean we did win all swing states, right?


The sad (ahem, SCARY) thing about it is that the majority of Trump supporters actually BELIEVE the words to be true.
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Vancarbon
Jun 23, 2025 8:48am
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Fake news .

There’s no inflation .

I have it on good authority from the President himself .
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ffghost
Jun 23, 2025 4:46pm
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Quoting Eurorally
{quote} Who writes these things? People devoid of logical thinking and any knowledge of economics. Prices are increasing? "It is a common sense that tariffs increase the prices" writes a PhD to me. Yet, none of this is confirmed by the readily available economics data and in particular by CPI, PPI and the year to year rate of inflation of 2.4% (the annual average of 3.28% over the ast 50 years). "But wait" say the uninformed. Wait till next week, next month, next year or 10 years. As the broken clock is right two times a day,...
To be fair, listening to businesses, they mostly ate the (smaller) tariff increases thus far. Certain retailers are beginning to pass those along to consumers presently. The concern I would have (and, I suppose the FED does) is if the negotiations result in what Trump promised, and fixed tariffs at 25-50%+ are imposed. I don't see that happening, but the president says it will. If we can't rely on his word, but what we all THINK he will do, how accurate is that? Even at 10% vs. 5% (just as a random example), there will be SOME increase in the price of that good. It is NOT a linear increase, as most think, but even if it is only 2% of the final MSRP, the consumer is still going to lay out more $$ for the same item. If the increase is from 5% to 50%, even moreso.....because companies cannot eat all the cost as it would put them out of business.

...but to your point, it seemingly isn't in the data (yet).
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Eurorally
Jun 23, 2025 11:41am
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Quoting ffghost
"Tariffs were also widely blamed on higher prices" who writes these things? Shouldn't that read: "higher prices were widely blamed on tariffs"? Or, "tariffs were widely blamed FOR higher prices"? I am not an English major but..... Even the first sentence: "US business activity continued to grow in June, though the overall rate of expansion lost a little momentum to remain well below those seen late last year. " 'those'? Poor pronoun game here. To what does 'those' (plural) reference? "Well below THAT...
Who writes these things? People devoid of logical thinking and any knowledge of economics.

Prices are increasing? "It is a common sense that tariffs increase the prices" writes a PhD to me.

Yet, none of this is confirmed by the readily available economics data and in particular by CPI, PPI and the year to year rate of inflation of 2.4% (the annual average of 3.28% over the ast 50 years).

"But wait" say the uninformed. Wait till next week, next month, next year or 10 years. As the broken clock is right two times a day, these people who have been putting their foot into their mouth for five months now will be right some day if they stay with it long enough as our capitalisn economy of free enterprise is by definition cyclical, will overheat some day and slow down.

But right now there is no indication of a recession, a high inflation and the high prices the "common wisdom" on this notwithstanding.
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Eurorally
Jun 24, 2025 8:11am
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} To be fair, listening to businesses, they mostly ate the (smaller) tariff increases thus far. Certain retailers are beginning to pass those along to consumers presently. The concern I would have (and, I suppose the FED does) is if the negotiations result in what Trump promised, and fixed tariffs at 25-50%+ are imposed. I don't see that happening, but the president says it will. If we can't rely on his word, but what we all THINK he will do, how accurate is that? Even at 10% vs. 5% (just as a random example), there will be SOME increase in...
Good, so we seem to be in agreement.

As for the future, I am not as pesimistic and ambivalet as you are. Here is what I wrote elsewhere:

Yes, but the base tariff of 10% across the board remains in place as well as some higher tariffs on steel, etc.

We should not fall into the dilettante economics believing that tariffs MUST be added to the price for the follwing reasons:

1. There is something called "price elasticity" in economics
2. The foreign producers have a number of ways to avoid tariffs by increasing production from the production facilities in the US thereby fulfulling two objectives of Trump's policy:

a. Lowering imports there by lowering the US negative balance of trade and
b. Increasing the utilization of the American labor - witness BMW and Mercedes

c. Withdrawing from the US market, which would fulfill one of the objectives of Trump's policy, namely lowering the negative balance of trade. Yet, this is not the preferred policy as the markets do not grow on trees, the foreign companies that announced the withdrawal from the American market early this year just in spite on the basis of a political bias notwithstanding.

d. Keep the prices constant to keep the market share plus offering various bonuses and price benefits to do the same - witness the Chinese mailorder company TEMU

So much for the dilettante economic theory "idiot Trump wants to destroy the US economy with his tariffs and the American consumer will pay for them" to which so many so readily subscribe with their lack of knowledge of economics. As one PhD wrote to me: "It is just the common sense, is it not?"
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TubbyTrader
Jun 23, 2025 9:43am
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saw the short from a mile away
Reply
Trader#BB95
Jun 23, 2025 9:02am
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Good News And dolar is short lol
Reply
Trader#48F0
Jun 23, 2025 9:24am
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Oh brother
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