Week Ahead: All but Oil, Nonplussed over the New Phase in Israel-Iran War | Metals Mine

  • Week Ahead: All but Oil, Nonplussed over the New Phase in Israel-Iran War

    From marctomarket.com

    The Israel-Iran war continues, but outside of oil, the capital markets have barely reacted. WTI rose by about 2.7% last week after a 13% rally the previous week. It reached levels not seen since early January. The average retail price of unleaded gasoline has risen by almost 2.5% this month. The price of gold fell by nearly 2% last week, its first weekly decline in three. The dollar rose against all of the G10 currencies. The US tariff threats, with postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariffs coming to an end on July 9, continue to cast a long shadow. The last-minute scramble for deals has begun. The recent ... (full story)

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MarcChandler
Jun 22, 2025 8:49am
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Sure, but I am not convinced that much as changed. It depends on how others respond, including Iran, Russia (defense pact with Iran signed in Jan) and China (the biggest buyer of Iranian oil). Reports suggest Iran may have moved the nuclear materials before the US strike, which PredictIt.Org showed was the odds on most likely scenario at the end of last week. Gold fell last week,, but settled firmly. A rise in gold would not be surprising and a further rise in oil. I was looking for a further gain in the dollar before the US strike and this still seems reasonable. Bitcoin is off 2.2% as I write this and it has lost around 6% since Israel's first strike on Iran. US involvement could be a one-off. There does not appear to be much support among the administration for another Middle East War. The hope in some quarters that with a 5-10 year estimated setback in Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel can still to its anticipated 2 week operation and declare victory.
Maybe...
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ffghost
Jun 21, 2025 10:25pm
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Uh huh we shall see how this holds up with the US involvement.
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