Trump: Market will go higher. It's gonna go a lot higher. | Metals Mine
Added at 10:49am
Added at 10:49am
Added at 10:50am
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ffghost
May 13, 2025 11:04am
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....so, will this be the time the media gets to point to a Trump tweet and say "he said buy at the exact top"? Even if so, he'd still be 2 for 3 in terms of instigating market rallies.

....that said, the equities do still have some room to run, IMO. Pullbacks will be bought until larger news is released to cast a shadow on the narrative (or until all time highs are reached and the big boys take their foot off the gas)
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ffghost
May 13, 2025 10:57am
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Keeps the gravy train rolling but bonds (/zb) are TANKING.....and that worries me.
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AaronWard
May 13, 2025 12:14pm
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The entire Trump plan is to offset market chaos with domestic investment. Domestic investment ranges from chips factories, auto parts, mining and drilling, nuclear power plants, drugs and pretty much anything and everything else, including picking rare earths off the bottom of the ocean. China was predictably pissed about that last item.

His key drivers for this growth are protective tariffs, unfair trade (think UK tariffed at 10%), massive cuts in regulation (ie think everything), and massive tax breaks. If he actually gets anything near the traction his team is hopeful for, the economy will grow at 3%-5% for the next few years. This is standard investment economics 101.
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The Fool
May 13, 2025 11:37am
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In the good old days, a month or so ago, markets would go up whenever there was no tariff talk in the news. China may be put to bed for a little while, but whack-a-mole there's EU to deal with, and then who else...

Any whiff of a successful tax legislation from the GOP will be good for 5-10% up in the spoos. JPow cutting 25bps in June, same.

All in all, I think we're squarely back in btfd country.
ffghost
May 13, 2025 11:43am
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Quoting The Fool
In the good old days, a month or so ago, markets would go up whenever there was no tariff talk in the news. China may be put to bed for a little while, but whack-a-mole there's EU to deal with, and then who else... Any whiff of a successful tax legislation from the GOP will be good for 5-10% up in the spoos. JPow cutting 25bps in June, same. All in all, I think we're squarely back in btfd country.
There's no question this rally has caught a lot of people short/on the sidelines and led to big FOMO. Every time a level of resistance is met, the pullback doesn't seem to be "typical" in nature (38.2 or 61.8% fib, or to a prior support, etc). There is substantial enough buying to prevent the retracements on pretty my any timeframe.

This is getting VERY overextended, of course, no one can dispute that, BUT overextension doesn't mean impending crash. In fact, a continuation to the upside with sideways consolidation is probably more likely (near term)....which scares me every time I take off a contract or two thinking I'll be able to buy back lower. (yes, I experience FOMO to the up and downside like everyone else!)
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ffghost
May 13, 2025 11:44am
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} No rate cuts in June.
\

Oh, most certainly not (at least not priced in). I think that was his point....if it DID happen that the FED came out and said "we think the economy is in a great place and we can now start to cut" that it would lead to a big pop in equities.
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ffghost
May 13, 2025 12:14pm
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Quoting Trader#8D3F
{quote} In my opinion the Fed will definitely cut by 25bps in June.
Things do change, but so you are aware, the world is betting squarely against you.....91.6% chance of NO cut in June. If the expectation is 90% certain there is no cut on the day of, and then there IS, the entire market has to re-price. It will be insane.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

Of course, there will be plenty of data released and FOMC officials speaking between now and the June meeting. So, as I said, a lot can change
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Trader#8D3F
May 13, 2025 11:00am
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Quoting ffghost
Keeps the gravy train rolling but bonds (/zb) are TANKING.....and that worries me.
Indeed. 4.947% on the 30y.
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 2:39pm
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Quoting Trader#00DB
This place is hilarious, bunch of "know it alls" with their crystal balls, trying to make sure "their predictions" will be "foreseen evidence" of "market intelligence". "I Told You" "You can read it on Forex Factory" LOLOLOL Mental Masterbation, Nobody gives a sht
Yet, here you are reading and commenting. Loser.
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 2:51pm
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Quoting Trader#8D3F
{quote} Yeah, I've seen the data on the FedWatch, however it is my opinion that the Fed will not miss the opportunity to cut rates this time around amid lower CPI data along with the mass lay-offs being announced. The Fed cannot keep the rates this high for much longer. Something will have to give soon. My bet is that the rates are too high for too long and additional waiting by the Fed will totally erode the trust in the Fed and the ability that they can do their job which could result in further USD dump. The Fed has printed way too much and this...
No, we are not going to crash. Corrections is done, market is bullish. Deals are done between two big powers America and China. Only left is EU, once they make a deal with EU, back to business, market will remain bullish, so will US dollar. Fed will not cut until July, there is no reason to cut for now because market is doing good and is bullish.
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Ko.capital
May 13, 2025 12:12pm
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Why yaild curve is bear-stepping ?!
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 11:41am
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Quoting The Fool
In the good old days, a month or so ago, markets would go up whenever there was no tariff talk in the news. China may be put to bed for a little while, but whack-a-mole there's EU to deal with, and then who else... Any whiff of a successful tax legislation from the GOP will be good for 5-10% up in the spoos. JPow cutting 25bps in June, same. All in all, I think we're squarely back in btfd country.
No rate cuts in June.
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Trader#8D3F
May 13, 2025 12:55pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Things do change, but so you are aware, the world is betting squarely against you.....91.6% chance of NO cut in June. If the expectation is 90% certain there is no cut on the day of, and then there IS, the entire market has to re-price. It will be insane. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html Of course, there will be plenty of data released and FOMC officials speaking between now and the June meeting. So, as I said, a lot can change
Yeah, I've seen the data on the FedWatch, however it is my opinion that the Fed will not miss the opportunity to cut rates this time around amid lower CPI data along with the mass lay-offs being announced. The Fed cannot keep the rates this high for much longer. Something will have to give soon. My bet is that the rates are too high for too long and additional waiting by the Fed will totally erode the trust in the Fed and the ability that they can do their job which could result in further USD dump. The Fed has printed way too much and this time getting away without a major disaster isn't going to work. The Fed had to kept raising rates to deflate the bubble as soon as possible which would be a disaster as well, however the Fed has done the worst thing possible. Because they have kept the rates this high for this long, savings have evaporated and prices continued going up. Now, the Fed has no choice but to cut rates and start a massive QE and basically buy it all. The Fed needs to start buying the debt before the yields skyrocket and the whole system collapses. This is why the market is wrong. There is no chance that the Fed will cut rates only two times this and two times next year. There's not much time left and I know the Fed is well aware of it. I'd expect to see the 2y yield significantly lower in the coming months. The Fed will buy it all if it has to, but the problem with that is that it will annihilate the purchasing power of the USD.

We are very close to some kind of a crash. However, I believe the biggest one will be in the purchasing power of the USD.
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Trader#BE05
May 13, 2025 4:36pm
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Quoting AaronWard
The entire Trump plan is to offset market chaos with domestic investment. Domestic investment ranges from chips factories, auto parts, mining and drilling, nuclear power plants, drugs and pretty much anything and everything else, including picking rare earths off the bottom of the ocean. China was predictably pissed about that last item. His key drivers for this growth are protective tariffs, unfair trade (think UK tariffed at 10%), massive cuts in regulation (ie think everything), and massive tax breaks. If he actually gets anything near the traction...
These are facts.
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GXX
May 13, 2025 7:52pm
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Hard to fight President Of USA pumping markets !
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Trader#92BF
May 13, 2025 10:48pm
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Quoting Trader#00DB
This place is hilarious, bunch of "know it alls" with their crystal balls, trying to make sure "their predictions" will be "foreseen evidence" of "market intelligence". "I Told You" "You can read it on Forex Factory" LOLOLOL Mental Masterbation, Nobody gives a sht
Umm, I think I hear your mummy calling you saying its bed time and to give her phone back, I mean only a 12yo still uses LOL...
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Trader#8D3F
May 13, 2025 11:44am
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Quoting Trader#BE05
{quote} No rate cuts in June.
In my opinion the Fed will definitely cut by 25bps in June.
Reply
Trader#00DB
May 13, 2025 2:15pm
Permalink
This place is hilarious, bunch of "know it alls" with their crystal balls, trying to make sure "their predictions" will be "foreseen evidence" of "market intelligence". "I Told You" "You can read it on Forex Factory" LOLOLOL
Mental Masterbation, Nobody gives a sht
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Trader#94A4
May 13, 2025 4:24pm
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Maybe the PRC will do what Trump wants since they don't want to be bothered with huge instability. But I still expect him to go after the EU for a pro-Russian reason
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