Trump: Reached breakthrough deal with UK

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...120417143.html

"The core of the deal is essentially a trade where the UK will get a lowering of US duties on key sectors. Most in focus are steel — US duties on UK-made steel will drop from 25% to 0% — and car exports, where duties are set to be reduced from 27.5% to 10% according to a release from the UK."

Like various Trump team players have been hinting, it looks like there will be a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with carve-outs for certain sectors and higher rates for others.

Assuming the value of US imports stays the same ($3.3 trillion in 2024) that'll be a $330 billion tax on US importers, and ultimately, on US consumers.

The estimated cost to extend the Trump 2018 tax cuts is $5 trillion, over 10 years, or $500 billion a year. And that does not include the cost to do other things Trump has promised, like no tax on tips or SS benefits; reduction of the corporate income tax rate; restoring the SALT deductions, and so on. The full package of tax cuts has been estimated at up to $11 trillion, or $1.1 trillion per year.

So, a 10% baseline tariff is not enough, and will have to be supplemented by massive federal budget cuts. In Trump's 2026 budget, he proposes $163 billion in cuts for non-discretionary spending. That's a lot, but not enough to cover all the tax relief is promising. ($330bio + $163bio = $493 bio < $1.1 trillion.)

It remains to be seen what budget Congress will approve, if any. Bottom line, though, if Trump is going to deliver on all he has promised, there will have to be much more cutting and probably a lot of radical ideas, like selling off US National Monuments and other Federal real estate.

Also, US imports are likely to go down, as foreign exporters try to find other markets, or US importers go out of business under the strain of the tariffs.

Trump says he wants to completely eliminate Federal taxation - do away with the IRS. Who pays taxes, anyway? Roughly half of US wage earners (yes, the poorer half) pay no Federal income tax. The richest 5% of American earners pay almost half of all the Federal income tax collected. If income tax is eliminated and all revenue will come from taxes on consumption, guess who will be better off?

May 8, 2025 10:17am

Quoting Trader#FC32

Disliked

Why are the positive comments not being posted?

Ignored

Woke leftists, they are brainwashed. You must follow data, monetary policy, fiscal policy and so on. They trade based on emotions with hate toward their political opponent, which I think is ridiculous. But that is only their opinions. If Trump made a deal, than it is a good news. That is all I care about. Market bullish, dollar bullish. Here we go and let's make money.

May 8, 2025 1:44pm

Quoting The Fool

Disliked

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...120417143.html "The core of the deal is essentially a trade where the UK will get a lowering of US duties on key sectors. Most in focus are steel — US duties on UK-made steel will drop from 25% to 0% — and car exports, where duties are set to be reduced from 27.5% to 10% according to a release from the UK." Like various Trump team players have been hinting, it looks like there will be a baseline 10% tariff on all...

Ignored

They are not serious about eliminating all income taxes. Also, they have added another $100B to military spending. They also seem to have some sort of magical thinking that there will be a massive economic boom, which will then generate so much money that, although they get a smaller percentage of the total revenue, in absolute dollars it will be more. The radical idea of "monetizing" our national parks and federally owned real estate is already in the works. I think there is an additional plan to charge our allies for the military protection. Finally they have a plan to charge a "user fee" for countries that have a large us debt holding.

Yeah, lots of radical shit.

May 8, 2025 5:39pm

Quoting ib1985ib

Disliked

{quote} That is good points there. But if you watch that video and see how they are suffering, they are closing businesses, their real estates houses and buildings are empty, are they really that tolerable to the economic pain? Will see.

Ignored

In America, if we complain loudly, we expect to be heard and we can kick out the current party in power every 4 years. In China one party has maintained control through events much worse than this for 80 years and if you complain loudly, you can expect to get locked up.

May 8, 2025 4:04pm

Quoting ib1985ib

Disliked

Year 2025. (Picture data). In 2023, China exported approximately 14.8% of its total global exports to the United States, with a value of $502 billion. While the US is China's largest export market, the share has decreased from 19% in 2018 to 14% in 2023, according to CaixaBank Research. Who will be in trouble more, and who will benefit more is the question. I mean only 14% export into the USA, what happens if USA...

Ignored

The problems are different . China will get hit with a depression while we get hit with stagflation. Of the two, a depression is worse than stagflation, but both are bad. It also needs to be said that both the US and China are very large economies for which trade is a relatively small part so it is hard to say how bad either party suffers.

Also worth noting is the Chinese tolerance for pain is far greater than ours.

Finally, this isn't really about trade. China and America are squaring off for a cold war as both sides rush towards AI dominance.

cco1569474

May 8, 2025 11:59am

Trump wins again

Trader#FC32

May 8, 2025 9:53am

Thing moving along nicely.

Good to see both sides agree and strengthen relationship.

May 8, 2025 10:10am

Watching livestream. It is a good deal, and markets are bullish so is Dollar. If you trade based on hating your political opponent, you already set up to fail and lose money. Listen to the speech and watch the data.

May 8, 2025 2:57pm

Year 2025. (Picture data).

In 2023, China exported approximately 14.8% of its total global exports to the United States, with a value of $502 billion. While the US is China's largest export market, the share has decreased from 19% in 2018 to 14% in 2023, according to CaixaBank Research.

Who will be in trouble more, and who will benefit more is the question. I mean only 14% export into the USA, what happens if USA just say no more. Will USA suffer more or will China? Use your own logic.

Conditions Now 100 Times Worse Than the Pandemic, Tariff War Devastates China’s Manufacturing

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May 8, 2025 4:57pm

Quoting AaronWard

Disliked

{quote} The problems are different . China will get hit with a depression while we get hit with stagflation. Of the two, a depression is worse than stagflation, but both are bad. It also needs to be said that both the US and China are very large economies for which trade is a relatively small part so it is hard to say how bad either party suffers. Also worth noting is the Chinese tolerance for pain is far greater than ours. Finally, this isn't really about trade. China and America are squaring off for a cold war as both sides rush towards AI dominance....

Ignored

That is good points there. But if you watch that video and see how they are suffering, they are closing businesses, their real estates houses and buildings are empty, are they really that tolerable to the economic pain? Will see.

NotAtrader

May 8, 2025 9:56am

Here is a business idea for Trump. Open and start a news agency broadcasting news 24/7 on all available media channels. You will steal all the listeners and followers from each and every TV/RADIO channel and all other information media.

The Fool

May 8, 2025 2:37pm

Quoting AaronWard

Disliked

{quote} They are not serious about eliminating all income taxes. Also, they have added another $100B to military spending. They also seem to have some sort of magical thinking that there will be a massive economic boom, which will then generate so much money that, although they get a smaller percentage of the total revenue, in absolute dollars it will be more. The radical idea of "monetizing" our national parks and federally owned real estate is already in the works. I think there is an additional plan to charge our allies for the military...

Ignored

This: "Finally they have a plan to charge a "user fee" for countries that have a large us debt holding."...if enacted, would blow up the US credit market. They have also talked about unilaterally re-issuing short-term debt as long term debt, which would be a de facto default. I predicted early on we'd see the ratings agencies coming back for further downgrades for the USA. I still believe it.

May 8, 2025 4:00pm

Quoting The Fool

Disliked

{quote} This: "Finally they have a plan to charge a "user fee" for countries that have a large us debt holding."...if enacted, would blow up the US credit market. They have also talked about unilaterally re-issuing short-term debt as long term debt, which would be a de facto default. I predicted early on we'd see the ratings agencies coming back for further downgrades for the USA. I still believe it.

Ignored

Compared to all the other shit, a downgrade by a credit agency seems relatively minor. They have some crazy stuff planned.

In my mind I see it like electric shock therapy. The plan is to keep applying shock after shock until the patient conforms. If the patient screams too loudly, they stop applying shocks for a bit. But then it is back to the shock therapy.

You can see this dynamic playing out in real time.

mortgagee

May 8, 2025 10:13am

Quoting Trader#E74A

Disliked

Market barely celebrated, headlines hardly creeping to front pages. I mean it'll get there, but hardly making a splash

Ignored

Hysterical celebration by MAGA traders . usd pushed up like crazy, no reason... Imagine this hysteria 170 times more.

mortgagee

May 8, 2025 5:18pm

Quoting The Fool

Disliked

{quote} This: "Finally they have a plan to charge a "user fee" for countries that have a large us debt holding."...if enacted, would blow up the US credit market. They have also talked about unilaterally re-issuing short-term debt as long term debt, which would be a de facto default. I predicted early on we'd see the ratings agencies coming back for further downgrades for the USA. I still believe it.

Ignored

USA has 340 million population. Why other countries want to sell in USA?

OutThere

May 8, 2025 2:45pm

Wow. The Earth is shattered. Where are we going to live now?

Banditten

May 8, 2025 10:02am

LOL its not a deal, its a framework

ww3361

May 8, 2025 10:18am

Quoting Trader#FC32

Disliked

Why are the positive comments not being posted?

Ignored

Go away

mortgagee

May 8, 2025 9:54am

trade deals become mental obsession

Trader#3A9C

May 8, 2025 9:58am

Massive TDS about to plague this board

Trader#FC32

May 8, 2025 10:08am

Have to listen to the livestream to hear all the things.

Media not posting the details.

Decide for yourself.

May 8, 2025 2:49pm

Quoting The Fool

Disliked

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...120417143.html "The core of the deal is essentially a trade where the UK will get a lowering of US duties on key sectors. Most in focus are steel — US duties on UK-made steel will drop from 25% to 0% — and car exports, where duties are set to be reduced from 27.5% to 10% according to a release from the UK." Like various Trump team players have been hinting, it looks like there will be a baseline 10% tariff on all...

Ignored

There is no other markets. There are three biggest market out there: USA, CHINA, EU. The rest are small.

China owns the red part countries, USA owns the blue part countries and EU owns the green part countries. It is very straightforward.
The state with the highest GDP in the USA is California, with a GDP of approximately $4.1 trillion. Texas follows with a GDP of about $2.7 trillion, and New York is third with a GDP around $2.3 trillion.

So these three States have a bigger GDP then some countries there on the list. America #1, China #2.

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May 8, 2025 5:24pm