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Three Things – Recessions, (more) Tariffs and Time
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I’ve updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and for me. I highly recommend creating your own recession rule. Unfortunately, it won’t have the same ring to it unless your name starts with an R. Anyhow, here’s what the update looks like. This chart, which updates at the Macro Dashboard, is 4 week jobless claims plus the U1 unemployment rate on a YoY % basis. Despite its simplicity it has a perfect record predicting recessions going back to 1965. As I’ve noted a ... (full story)
