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  • The US Employment Situation -- December 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and ... (full story)

Added at 8:42am

  • U.S. payrolls grew by 256,000 in December, much more than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%

    From cnbc.com

    Job growth was much stronger than expected in December, possibly providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut interest rates this year. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. Stock market futures were negative after the report’s release while Treasury yields soared. The report brings to a close a year in which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising ... (full story)

good as expected
Follow price direction
NEXT THING ....?
Miracle labor jobs increased, unemployment was down, and the hourly rate is moderate. Very good for USD. Welcome to 2025
A little better than what I expected. My estimate was in the range of 225K.
Who else sell EURUSD before the the newes were released?
Not real numbers, but our job is to react to it, not to predict it...
The data is interesting. NFP strong, U.R down, Avg Down,
No Pressure for FED to cut.
Even a 4D chart wont make you a better trader!
sell usd/jpy 158.70. PT 1.54
I warned you Powell; don't lower interest rates. Everyone know then and now that it was a political decision. You bet the wrong horse; in fact, it was a donkey!
Quoting Bakker
I warned you Powell; don't lower interest rates. Everyone know then and now that it was a political decision.
Overall pretty strong.

Notables:

Transportation and Warehousing gained 43,400 jobs, rebounding sharply from a loss of -29,200 in November.

Government added 33,000 jobs, primarily at the state level.

Healthcare gained 46,000 jobs, with notable growth in home healthcare services (15K) and hospitals (12K).

Social Assistance increased by 23,000 jobs, driven by individual and family services.


Annual employment increase totaled 2.2 million in 2024, lower than the 3.0 million increase in 2023.

Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing declined by -4,100 jobs, reversing gains seen earlier in the year.

Retail Trade declined by -3,500 jobs, reflecting softer holiday-season hiring in general merchandise stores.

Mining and Logging lost -3,000 jobs, continuing a weak trend in resource extraction.

Temp jobs declined by -5,300 jobs, showing continued softness in temporary staffing.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: na
Sell btc now @ your own Haaaa,
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Quoting donroyalfx
Sell btc now @ your own risk .....mm
.
Buy BTC
Make it Green
Interest rate cut is push further as a result of this data...see the dollar bulls taking euro to parity before the first quarter of the month.
The Fed, Trump, and the Bond Vigilantes in a Mexican standoff for 2025. The Fed can't cut as the 10yr rate has done nothing but rise as markets eye Trump's plans for inflationary policies on all fronts. Trump already starting to yak about rates being too high and will continue, probably "lashing out" at Powell. If you haven't figured it out, watch out below going forward as everything (bonds & equities) keep selling off, especially if Trump delivers on his promises of broad tariffs against everyone and aggro immigrant roundups. Buy BTC, gold, and the USD.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
The Fed, Trump, and the Bond Vigilantes in a Mexican standoff for 2025. The Fed can't cut as the 10yr rate has done nothing but rise as markets eye Trump's plans for inflationary policies on all fronts. Trump already starting to yak about rates being too high and will continue, probably "lashing out" at Powell. If you haven't figured it out, watch out below going forward as everything (bonds & equities) keep selling off, especially if Trump delivers on his promises of broad tariffs against everyone and aggro immigrant roundups. Buy...
The irony is the FEDS want the rate to go down but like you said they're handcuffed at the moment. With some potential policies it could definitely further exacerbate keeping the rates higher for longer.
The solution is (x).
Quoting The Fool
especially if Trump delivers on his promises of broad tariffs against everyone
he already walked those back, said tariffs would be more targeted
What a ridiculously profitable week! 2025 is going to be a good one.
Quoting Tfluker321
{quote} he already walked those back, said tariffs would be more targeted
It remains to be seen. I expect a lot of things to be coming out by Executive Order in the first days of his term. Trump is a convicted felon now and a lame duck POTUS, so he'll be ticked off & may not care how much damage he does. Ironically, if equities fall hard and long enough, that'll be deflationary and the Fed would need to cut to remedy that damage.

If I had to bet, I kind of concur with you and would guess there will be tariffs coming out but the worst of it will be against China and the Mexico/Canada stuff will be MIA. But we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/go...k-202501101501

how the bulls just took over all of the sudden wow
Wait for a month...it will be again revised down by 90%. Market doesn't believe these numbers anymore...just using them as better buy entries.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
From1toMillion EA All Time Return: 3,323.0%
Quoting dildobaggins
What a ridiculously profitable week! 2025 is going to be a good one.
Do you actually trade? Never saw you actually have the balls to state a position or an actual trade of any kind.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting louisfx;1511246<br /> 3
{quote}. Buy btc
just look at btc again great friend
Market can act irrational more than you think. If you can't believe it just see the hundreds of thousands who threw their lives away and die in losing battles that mustn't even have started. Not now only but across the history. Big change is coming.
Quoting Siawosh
Big change is coming.
Like what, for example?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Do you actually trade? Never saw you actually have the balls to state a position or an actual trade of any kind.
I feel a disturbance in the force... Like someone lost a bunch of money and is flailing around like a toddler on an online forum to make themselves feel better...
Quoting dildobaggins
{quote} I feel a disturbance in the force... Like someone lost a bunch of money and is flailing around like a toddler on an online forum to make themselves feel better...
lol...better just to quack about making profit without ever actually representing what your trades are. Real credible. It's ok, no brains and no balls is all I expect from the so-called traders who wander in here.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting teprewitt23
{quote} {image}
thanks, your endorsement means a lot to me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}lol...better just to quack about making profit without ever actually representing what your trades are. Real credible. It's ok, no brains and no balls is all I expect from the so-called traders who wander in here.
Buddy I've been shorting the euro all week like every other trader who saw the very clear picture of the impending widening of spreads in central bank rates.... Caught the big drop when NFP was released and then scalped a few moves down in the consolidation channel. Why do you feel the need to hate on everyone here with a different opinion from yours? And why are you speaking in such absolutes about the future when things are so obviously uncertain? Do you have a crystal ball or are you just a narcissist that can't stand being wrong?
Quoting dildobaggins
{quote} Buddy
I'm not your buddy. Your claims of trades in hindsight mean nothing to anyone. I've been here 15+ years, posting trades in realtime. And I'm wrong probably most of the time, that's trading. I trade bi-directionally, always. So I don't have to be right. I'm not aware that I've hated on anyone. Probably just hurt your feelings by calling out typical red hat bullshit. It's ok, feel better. Congratulate yourself on some more imaginary trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}thanks, your endorsement means a lot to me.
You read my message and you are laughing out loud? If you show my message to one of your friends and he is not laughing out loud get yourself check out.
Quoting teprewitt23
{quote} sadest fact is, he is old enough to know better.
I really am fortunate to have you here, pointing out my shortcomings without fail. Thanks again.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Siawosh
{quote} You read my message and you are laughing out loud? If you show my message to one of your friends and he is not laughing out loud get yourself check out.
idk maybe something was lost in translation.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
The numbers doesn't matter, market moves the way manipulators wants. After such bold data, USD become flat !!! GOLD is flying like there is no tomorrow !!! Doesn't make any sense.
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I'm not your buddy. Your claims of trades in hindsight mean nothing to anyone. I've been here 15+ years, posting trades in realtime. And I'm wrong probably most of the time, that's trading. I trade bi-directionally, always. So I don't have to be right. I'm not aware that I've hated on anyone. Probably just hurt your feelings by calling out typical red hat bullshit. It's ok, feel better. Congratulate yourself on some more imaginary trades.
Buddy I assure you I own no red hats and have never once voted for Trump... Seriously just put your emotions and political beliefs to the side they don't have any relevance here.
Quoting dildobaggins
{quote} Buddy I assure you I own no red hats and have never once voted for Trump... Seriously just put your emotions and political beliefs to the side they don't have any relevance here.
Practice what you preach & we'll be cool.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting teprewitt23
there is no problem with traders talking about trading, you can't seem to post anything that is not saturated with political bias, just keep that to yourself and no-one will have any problem with your trading opinions. people that don't share your political view point are tired of being quiet.
I've never seen a bit of any political bias in any of your many posts about US political affairs, which you post all the time, oddly, even though you don't live here. No, all of your views are well-reasoned, civil, and refreshing. Keep up the good work!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting teprewitt23
the biggest difference between us is......I take no issue with others, only the articles and the choice to publish them by FF, you on the otherhand, take direct issue with other traders.
sure that explains why you've repeatedly called me a dumbass. Which is ok, just don't be surprised if I retaliate. Probably best thing would be for you to put me on ignore, although I guess you'd have less to do then.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting RedCable
The numbers doesn't matter, market moves the way manipulators wants. After such bold data, USD become flat !!! GOLD is flying like there is no tomorrow !!! Doesn't make any sense.
You name yourself correctly.
Quoting Bakker
I warned you Powell; don't lower interest rates. Everyone know then and now that it was a political decision. You bet the wrong horse; in fact, it was a donkey!
Powell is doing what he should do. I have respect for the man. I respect him for what I don't see. Imagine Yelen in his position. Strong Job market why cut rates? Inflation still high and there is risk why cut rates. many would buckle under pressure of strong, he didn't. That's inner power and it commends respect.

He is doing his job.
Quoting RedCable
The numbers doesn't matter, market moves the way manipulators wants. After such bold data, USD become flat !!! GOLD is flying like there is no tomorrow !!! Doesn't make any sense.
Just follow the charts my friend; its all there; forget the manipulators; they're not there.
Quoting RedCable
The numbers doesn't matter, market moves the way manipulators wants. After such bold data, USD become flat !!! GOLD is flying like there is no tomorrow !!! Doesn't make any sense.
I agree with bakker. You take it as what it is. there are liquidity sweeps when the institutions push price to a place that there are stop loss and also orders. If you believe this market is only made to manipulate and cheat why do you want to participate? There is incohesion here in your statement. there is a paradox.

There is nothing wrong with you and this statement. It is human nature and human nature also is present in the market. There can be reasons that we don't know and move the market. insider info or disbelief in the data or some other compilated economic reason. Or simply mistake.

Haven't you seen a nation make a mistake? is that manipulation? haven't you see a nation with all its might make a mistake and press on it until total collapse? It is normal. it is human nature.

I am not saying this move is a mistake. I am just saying you need to understand the risk in a financial markets and in general life.
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