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High rates may not be bringing down inflation as much as the Fed thinks
"If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" is an old philosophical thought experiment. There is a monetary policy equivalent right now: If high interest rates don't visibly slow the economy, are they doing anything to bring inflation down? Why it matters: It's unclear how much the Fed's high interest rate policy is exerting downward pressure on economic activity, raising profound questions about the central bank's power to guide the economy and manage inflation. No recession has occurred, contrary to forecasts when the Fed raised interest rates by more than 5 percentage ... (full story)